Lithium constraints on India’s transport electrification: system-level impacts and policy implications for the net-zero transition
- 1Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee
- 2KanORS-EMR, NSEZ
Abstract
Energy transition pathways have largely treated critical minerals as unconstrained for the deployment of low-carbon energy technologies. This paper challenges this assumption for India, the third-largest energy consumer globally and a major importer of battery-grade minerals, by incorporating lithium supply limitations within an integrated energy-system framework and quantifying the consequences on technology choices, electrification, and transition costs. This study assesses the feasibility of decarbonization pathways using the long-term energy-system models from a critical minerals availability constraints perspective. Using the KINESYS-TIMES model, seventeen scenarios combine three lithium-intensity sensitivities (kg of lithium per kWh of installed battery capacity) with four availability cases (30%, 60% and 90% of unconstrained net-zero (NZ) requirements, and unconstrained), two dynamic recycling variants, and three runs under an Accelerated Policies scenario of intermediate ambition. The availability is enforced within the optimization; hence the substitutability comes from cost minimization, not from post hoc accounting, and the marginal value of the constraint becomes apparent. Lithium retained in the operational fleet grows twentyfold between 2030 and 2070 from 36.8 to 728.4 kt yr ⁻¹ with post-2040 being the risk period. Under severe constraint, within the fixed lithium-ion technology set modelled, the system reconfigures rather than fails; electrification is throttled back, hydrogen and biofuels expand, and hybrids re-enter endogenously. Recycling contributes little prior to 2045 but increases availability to 452 from 218 kt yr ⁻¹ by 2070. The shadow price of the constraint is zero until the cap hits and then increases convexly, in the ratio 1.00:2.79:7.94 in 2070 for the three caps, and chemistry innovation delays the cap hit by fifteen years. Under the intermediate ambition, the binding cap is satisfied by 67.9% fossil fuels versus 10.6% under NZ. These results establish material feasibility as a structurally distinct dimension of India’s NZ pathway requiring explicit integration into energy planning alongside emissions and energy security.
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BibTeX
@article{agarwal2026lithium,
title = {{Lithium constraints on India’s transport electrification: system-level impacts and policy implications for the net-zero transition}},
author = {Anu Agarwal and Amit Kanudia and Tarun Sharma},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aeb03a},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb03a},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Lithium constraints on India’s transport electrification: system-level impacts and policy implications for the net-zero transition
AU - Anu Agarwal
AU - Amit Kanudia
AU - Tarun Sharma
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/28
JO - Environmental Research Letters
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb03a
UR - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb03a
AB - Energy transition pathways have largely treated critical minerals as unconstrained for the deployment of low-carbon energy technologies. This paper challenges this assumption for India, the third-largest energy consumer globally and a major importer of battery-grade minerals, by incorporating lithium supply limitations within an integrated energy-system framework and quantifying the consequences on technology choices, electrification, and transition costs. This study assesses the feasibility of decarbonization pathways using the long-term energy-system models from a critical minerals availability constraints perspective. Using the KINESYS-TIMES model, seventeen scenarios combine three lithium-intensity sensitivities (kg of lithium per kWh of installed battery capacity) with four availability cases (30%, 60% and 90% of unconstrained net-zero (NZ) requirements, and unconstrained), two dynamic recycling variants, and three runs under an Accelerated Policies scenario of intermediate ambition. The availability is enforced within the optimization; hence the substitutability comes from cost minimization, not from post hoc accounting, and the marginal value of the constraint becomes apparent. Lithium retained in the operational fleet grows twentyfold between 2030 and 2070 from 36.8 to 728.4 kt yr ⁻¹ with post-2040 being the risk period. Under severe constraint, within the fixed lithium-ion technology set modelled, the system reconfigures rather than fails; electrification is throttled back, hydrogen and biofuels expand, and hybrids re-enter endogenously. Recycling contributes little prior to 2045 but increases availability to 452 from 218 kt yr ⁻¹ by 2070. The shadow price of the constraint is zero until the cap hits and then increases convexly, in the ratio 1.00:2.79:7.94 in 2070 for the three caps, and chemistry innovation delays the cap hit by fifteen years. Under the intermediate ambition, the binding cap is satisfied by 67.9% fossil fuels versus 10.6% under NZ. These results establish material feasibility as a structurally distinct dimension of India’s NZ pathway requiring explicit integration into energy planning alongside emissions and energy security.
SN - 1748-9326
ER -