How well can we forecast local magnetic ground perturbations with existing space weather monitoring resources?
6 affiliations
- 1Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
- 2Department of Physics and Technology, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- 3Tromsø Geophysical Observatory (TGO), University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway
- 4Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
- 5Electric Power Engineering, SINTEF Energi AS, Trondheim, Norway
- 6Statnett, Oslo, Norway
Abstract
In this study we examine how a deep-learning based forecast of local, ground-based geomagnetic field variations trained on solar wind parameters available in real time might be improved by including information contained in an accurate forecast of solar wind conditions. This is accomplished using a long short-term memory (LSTM) model together with magnetic field measurements made at the Rørvik magnetometer station in Mid-Norway. We use Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite measurements of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions at the first Sun-Earth Lagrange point, and historical lists of coronal mass ejection (CME) impacts at Earth to train and validate the LSTM model. We find that accurate information about the IMF Bz component and solar wind speed are important for obtaining a reasonably accurate (r²≥0.5) forecast of local geomagnetic activity over forecasting horizons beyond ∼3 h. Information about CME arrival time is only important when accompanied by accurate, relatively high-resolution information about IMF Bz. In the absence of the latter, CME arrival time information does not contribute to model performance. This empirical result amounts to a quantitative demonstration of the widely recognized impact of IMF orientation on CME geoeffectiveness. This result also highlights that new innovations, probably in the form of new prediction capabilities of conditions in interplanetary space, will be required to produce accurate forecasts of local geomagnetic disturbances beyond a forecast horizon of 1 h.
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BibTeX
@article{omondi2026well,
title = {{How well can we forecast local magnetic ground perturbations with existing space weather monitoring resources?}},
author = {S. Omondi and S. M. Hatch and A. Kvammen and M. G. Johnsen and M. J. Owens and K. S. Thinn and R. López},
journal = {Annales Geophysicae},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.5194/angeo-44-1259-2026},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-44-1259-2026},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - How well can we forecast local magnetic ground perturbations with existing space weather monitoring resources?
AU - S. Omondi
AU - S. M. Hatch
AU - A. Kvammen
AU - M. G. Johnsen
AU - M. J. Owens
AU - K. S. Thinn
AU - R. López
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/09
JO - Annales Geophysicae
DO - 10.5194/angeo-44-1259-2026
UR - https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-44-1259-2026
AB - In this study we examine how a deep-learning based forecast of local, ground-based geomagnetic field variations trained on solar wind parameters available in real time might be improved by including information contained in an accurate forecast of solar wind conditions. This is accomplished using a long short-term memory (LSTM) model together with magnetic field measurements made at the Rørvik magnetometer station in Mid-Norway. We use Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite measurements of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions at the first Sun-Earth Lagrange point, and historical lists of coronal mass ejection (CME) impacts at Earth to train and validate the LSTM model. We find that accurate information about the IMF Bz component and solar wind speed are important for obtaining a reasonably accurate (r²≥0.5) forecast of local geomagnetic activity over forecasting horizons beyond ∼3 h. Information about CME arrival time is only important when accompanied by accurate, relatively high-resolution information about IMF Bz. In the absence of the latter, CME arrival time information does not contribute to model performance. This empirical result amounts to a quantitative demonstration of the widely recognized impact of IMF orientation on CME geoeffectiveness. This result also highlights that new innovations, probably in the form of new prediction capabilities of conditions in interplanetary space, will be required to produce accurate forecasts of local geomagnetic disturbances beyond a forecast horizon of 1 h.
SN - 0992-7689
SN - 1432-0576
ER -