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Peer-reviewedCC BY-NC-ND 4.0Acta Paediatrica (Oslo, Norway : 1992)

Body Mass Index Category Transitions in Childhood and Probability of Obesity at Age 13

  • R. Ødegård1,2
  • C. H. Edwards3,4,5
  • V. Halsteinli1
  • H. N. Bjørnsen4,6
  • B. Pettersen6
  • G. W. Bjørnelv3,7
7 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Surgery, Obesity Research Centre St. Olav Hospital HF, Trondheim University Hospital Trondheim Norway
  2. 2Department of Clinical and Molecular Medicine Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim Norway
  3. 3Department of Public Health and Nursing Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim Norway
  4. 4Department of Child and Adolescent Health Promotion Services, Division for Public Health and Prevention Norwegian Institute of Public Health Levanger Norway
  5. 5Division of Mental Health Care St. Olav Hospital HF, Trondheim University Hospital Trondheim Norway
  6. 6Trondheim Municipality, Trondheim, Norway Norway
  7. 7Department of Health Management and Health Economics University of Oslo Oslo Norway
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Abstract

Aim: Understanding how children move between Body Mass Index (BMI) categories may improve early detection of those at risk of persistent obesity. This study explored transitions between BMI categories during childhood and their association with the probability of obesity at Age 13.

Methods: Routine BMI measurements at Ages 2, 4, 6, 8, and 13 years were obtained retrospectively from child health records. The International Obesity Task Force cut‐offs were used to define overweight and obesity and to calculate BMI‐for‐age z‐scores. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the probability of obesity at Age 13, depending on combinations of BMI categories at earlier ages (4, 6, and 8 years).

Results: A total of 360 957 height and weight observations from 124 470 children were included. The predicted probability of obesity at Age 13 was 8%–10% among children with overweight at Ages 4, 6, or 8 years, and 38%–51% among those with obesity in earlier ages. Probabilities were stable across ages and only marginally influenced by prior transitions between BMI categories.

Conclusion: Early childhood obesity was strongly associated with adolescent obesity, whereas overweight was associated with a substantially lower risk of progression, even among children whose BMI had recently increased from normal weight.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{odegard2026body,
  title = {{Body Mass Index Category Transitions in Childhood and Probability of Obesity at Age 13}},
  author = {R. Ødegård and C. H. Edwards and V. Halsteinli and H. N. Bjørnsen and B. Pettersen and G. W. Bjørnelv},
  journal = {Acta Paediatrica (Oslo, Norway : 1992)},
  year = {2026},
  month = aug,
  doi = {10.1111/apa.70715},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/apa.70715},
  note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Body Mass Index Category Transitions in Childhood and Probability of Obesity at Age 13
AU  - R. Ødegård
AU  - C. H. Edwards
AU  - V. Halsteinli
AU  - H. N. Bjørnsen
AU  - B. Pettersen
AU  - G. W. Bjørnelv
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/08/21
JO  - Acta Paediatrica (Oslo, Norway : 1992)
DO  - 10.1111/apa.70715
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1111/apa.70715
AB  - Aim: Understanding how children move between Body Mass Index (BMI) categories may improve early detection of those at risk of persistent obesity. This study explored transitions between BMI categories during childhood and their association with the probability of obesity at Age 13.  Methods: Routine BMI measurements at Ages 2, 4, 6, 8, and 13 years were obtained retrospectively from child health records. The International Obesity Task Force cut‐offs were used to define overweight and obesity and to calculate BMI‐for‐age z‐scores. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the probability of obesity at Age 13, depending on combinations of BMI categories at earlier ages (4, 6, and 8 years).  Results: A total of 360 957 height and weight observations from 124 470 children were included. The predicted probability of obesity at Age 13 was 8%–10% among children with overweight at Ages 4, 6, or 8 years, and 38%–51% among those with obesity in earlier ages. Probabilities were stable across ages and only marginally influenced by prior transitions between BMI categories.  Conclusion: Early childhood obesity was strongly associated with adolescent obesity, whereas overweight was associated with a substantially lower risk of progression, even among children whose BMI had recently increased from normal weight.
SN  - 0803-5253
SN  - 1651-2227
ER  -