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PreprintCC BY 4.0arXiv

Rock, Paper, Scissors, ... Dynamite - A Model of Disruption from New Technologies

  • Andrew J. Lohn
Open at sourcePDFDOICite

Abstract

We seek to understand the effect of adding disruptive highly-capable new technologies to competitions by assessing the addition of Dynamite to Rock-Paper-Scissors. We find that providing a versatile Dynamite move to only one player provides limited value (win probability increases from 50% to 55.5%) and is played rarely. That value decreases further if the game is expanded beyond just the original three moves. We also observe several mechanisms by which prior moves can become strategically unplayable, or obsolete. We hope that this model illustrates some non-intuitive aspects of developing new versatile technologies. We also hope that it illustrates some pitfalls for developers and integrators to avoid in order to create value rather than merely capability.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@misc{lohn2026rock,
  title = {{Rock, Paper, Scissors, ... Dynamite - A Model of Disruption from New Technologies}},
  author = {Andrew J. Lohn},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.00207},
  eprint = {2609.00207},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.00207},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - UNPB
TI  - Rock, Paper, Scissors, ... Dynamite - A Model of Disruption from New Technologies
AU  - Andrew J. Lohn
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/01
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.00207
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.00207
AB  - We seek to understand the effect of adding disruptive highly-capable new technologies to competitions by assessing the addition of Dynamite to Rock-Paper-Scissors. We find that providing a versatile Dynamite move to only one player provides limited value (win probability increases from 50% to 55.5%) and is played rarely. That value decreases further if the game is expanded beyond just the original three moves. We also observe several mechanisms by which prior moves can become strategically unplayable, or obsolete. We hope that this model illustrates some non-intuitive aspects of developing new versatile technologies. We also hope that it illustrates some pitfalls for developers and integrators to avoid in order to create value rather than merely capability.
ER  -