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PreprintCC BY 4.0arXiv

Structured Extrema Errors in Classical Surrogates for Viscous Burgers: A Physics-Consistent Interpretation

Abstract

We study the local errors of classical machine-learning surrogate models, which approximate the time evolution of the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation. Four models are compared on the same prediction task, using the spatial grid values directly: radial basis function (RBF) kernel ridge regression (KRR), linear Ridge, ExtraTrees, and Random Forests. Across all four models, the one-step residual, defined here as the true value minus the predicted value at each grid point, forms clear curved branches near predicted maxima and minima. A more detailed analysis of KRR shows that these errors are much more strongly related to the second spatial derivative, which measures local curvature, than to the first spatial derivative. Near a smooth extremum, predicted value and curvature form a local two-branch fold. Under our local curvature-based model of the residual, this fold predicts a leading-order near-parabolic relation between predicted value and residual. This geometric result motivates a direct test of the Burgers advection (transport) and diffusion (smoothing) terms. For KRR and Ridge, regression tests on held-out trajectories, a control that breaks the spatial alignment of the diffusion term, and a spectral test of high-frequency content are consistent with insufficient viscous smoothing at moderate and high viscosity. In this case, the surrogate retains more small-scale structure than the true future state. The same physical explanation is much weaker for the tree models. Finally, a correction that uses only predicted quantities reduces both one-step error and error during recursive rollout, where each prediction is used as the next input.

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BibTeX
@misc{oubari2026structured,
  title = {{Structured Extrema Errors in Classical Surrogates for Viscous Burgers: A Physics-Consistent Interpretation}},
  author = {Youssef Oubari},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.07952},
  eprint = {2609.07952},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.07952},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - UNPB
TI  - Structured Extrema Errors in Classical Surrogates for Viscous Burgers: A Physics-Consistent Interpretation
AU  - Youssef Oubari
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/07
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.07952
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.07952
AB  - We study the local errors of classical machine-learning surrogate models, which approximate the time evolution of the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation. Four models are compared on the same prediction task, using the spatial grid values directly: radial basis function (RBF) kernel ridge regression (KRR), linear Ridge, ExtraTrees, and Random Forests. Across all four models, the one-step residual, defined here as the true value minus the predicted value at each grid point, forms clear curved branches near predicted maxima and minima. A more detailed analysis of KRR shows that these errors are much more strongly related to the second spatial derivative, which measures local curvature, than to the first spatial derivative. Near a smooth extremum, predicted value and curvature form a local two-branch fold. Under our local curvature-based model of the residual, this fold predicts a leading-order near-parabolic relation between predicted value and residual. This geometric result motivates a direct test of the Burgers advection (transport) and diffusion (smoothing) terms. For KRR and Ridge, regression tests on held-out trajectories, a control that breaks the spatial alignment of the diffusion term, and a spectral test of high-frequency content are consistent with insufficient viscous smoothing at moderate and high viscosity. In this case, the surrogate retains more small-scale structure than the true future state. The same physical explanation is much weaker for the tree models. Finally, a correction that uses only predicted quantities reduces both one-step error and error during recursive rollout, where each prediction is used as the next input.
ER  -