Trend analysis and prediction of the burden of aortic aneurysm in older adults in China from 1990 to 2021
Abstract
ObjectiveTo investigate the disease burden of aortic aneurysm among older adults in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict its trends over the next decade.MethodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD) study (1990⁃2021),we analyzed mortality and years of life lost(YLLs) due to aortic aneurysm among older Chinese adults,stratified by sex and age group,and compared these with global data for the same population.Joinpoint regression was employed to examine temporal trends in the disease burden in China and worldwide,and to identify attributable risk factors.An autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model was applied to predict the disease burden for the next decade.ResultsGlobally,the age⁃standardized mortality rate(ASDR) and age⁃standardized YLL rate (ASRYLLs) for aortic aneurysm in adults aged ≥60 years declined from 17.85/100,000 and 290.76/100,000 in 1990 to 12.66/100,000 and 200.00/100,000 in 2021,representing cumulative decreases of 29.08% and 31.21%,respectively.In contrast,among older Chinese adults,the ASDR and ASRYLLs increased from 1.75/100,000 and 29.99/100,000 in 1990 to 2.36/100,000 and 40.56/100,000 in 2021,with cumulative increases of 34.86% and 35.25%.The burden was consistently higher in males than that in females.This sex gap is eatimated to widen further over the next decade.ConclusionsThe burden of aortic aneurysm among older adults in China increased markedly from 1990 to 2021.It is eatimated to continue rising over the next decade. We recommend the development of comprehensive prevention and management strategies for aortic aneurysm, alongside improved access to high-quality medical care for the elderly,so as to mitigate this growing burden.
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BibTeX
@article{li2026trend,
title = {{Trend analysis and prediction of the burden of aortic aneurysm in older adults in China from 1990 to 2021}},
author = {PU Li and PENG Heqi and WANG Huanhuan and WANG Xiaoli and CHENG Xiangwei and WANG Peihong},
journal = {Huli yanjiu},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
url = {http://hlyj.suo1.cn/thesisDetails#10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.21.003},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Trend analysis and prediction of the burden of aortic aneurysm in older adults in China from 1990 to 2021
AU - PU Li
AU - PENG Heqi
AU - WANG Huanhuan
AU - WANG Xiaoli
AU - CHENG Xiangwei
AU - WANG Peihong
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Huli yanjiu
UR - http://hlyj.suo1.cn/thesisDetails#10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.21.003
AB - ObjectiveTo investigate the disease burden of aortic aneurysm among older adults in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict its trends over the next decade.MethodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD) study (1990⁃2021),we analyzed mortality and years of life lost(YLLs) due to aortic aneurysm among older Chinese adults,stratified by sex and age group,and compared these with global data for the same population.Joinpoint regression was employed to examine temporal trends in the disease burden in China and worldwide,and to identify attributable risk factors.An autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model was applied to predict the disease burden for the next decade.ResultsGlobally,the age⁃standardized mortality rate(ASDR) and age⁃standardized YLL rate (ASRYLLs) for aortic aneurysm in adults aged ≥60 years declined from 17.85/100,000 and 290.76/100,000 in 1990 to 12.66/100,000 and 200.00/100,000 in 2021,representing cumulative decreases of 29.08% and 31.21%,respectively.In contrast,among older Chinese adults,the ASDR and ASRYLLs increased from 1.75/100,000 and 29.99/100,000 in 1990 to 2.36/100,000 and 40.56/100,000 in 2021,with cumulative increases of 34.86% and 35.25%.The burden was consistently higher in males than that in females.This sex gap is eatimated to widen further over the next decade.ConclusionsThe burden of aortic aneurysm among older adults in China increased markedly from 1990 to 2021.It is eatimated to continue rising over the next decade. We recommend the development of comprehensive prevention and management strategies for aortic aneurysm, alongside improved access to high-quality medical care for the elderly,so as to mitigate this growing burden.
SN - 1009-6493
ER -