Possible Shift of Suitable Distribution Habitats of Laurus nobilis L. in Türkiye with the Effects of Global Climate Change
7 affiliations
- 1Institute of Science, Düzce University, 81620 Düzce, Türkiye
- 2Department of Forest Engineering, Düzce University, 81620 Düzce, Türkiye
- 3Arac Rafet Vergili Vocational School, Kastamonu University, 37800 Kastamonu, Türkiye
- 4Department of Forest Engineering, Kastamonu University, 37150 Kastamonu, Türkiye
- 5Department of Environmental Engineering, Kastamonu University, 37150 Kastamonu, Türkiye
- 6Department of Forest Engineering, Bartın University, 74100 Bartın, Türkiye
- 7Department of Transportation Services, Vocational School of Technical Sciences, Bitlis Eren University, 13100 Bitlis, Türkiye
Abstract
Climate change poses significant threats to Mediterranean plant species, including Laurus nobilis L., an ecologically and economically important tree. This study evaluates potential shifts in its suitable distribution areas across Türkiye under future climate scenarios [Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) and 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5)] using an ensemble species distribution model incorporating ten algorithms. Key environmental drivers—elevation, annual mean temperature (Bio1), and evaporation including sublimation and transpiration (evspsbl)—were identified as critical factors influencing habitat suitability. Results indicate substantial spatial redistributions, with habitat losses projected in inland transition zones toward continental climates, particularly in parts of the Aegean and Black Sea regions. The current suitable distribution area across the country, approximately 18.48%, could rise to 18.55% by 2040 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and to 18.76% by 2060 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, without human intervention, the species’ establishment in these new suitable distribution areas is not considered possible. Moreover, it has been determined that the suitable distribution area of the species could decrease to 17.48% by 2060 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and to 17.31% by 2080 under the SSP5-85 scenario. This result indicates that there could be a loss of more than 8% of the suitable distribution area between 2060 and 2080, according to the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Conversely, limited expansions may occur in specific areas, including the northern Aegean and the Hatay-Antep region. By 2100, despite periodic fluctuations, a net decline in suitable habitats is expected under both scenarios. Notably, spatial analysis reveals that while some newly suitable areas may emerge, natural migration will likely be insufficient for population persistence, necessitating human-assisted adaptation strategies. These findings underscore the need for proactive conservation measures, such as identifying climate-resilient provenances, assisted migration, and targeted reforestation in future suitable zones. Given that most Turkish forests are state-managed, collaboration with the General Directorate of Forestry is essential to integrate climate adaptation into long-term management plans. This study provides a framework for mitigating climate-induced habitat loss in L. nobilis while offering insights applicable to other vulnerable Mediterranean species facing similar threats.
Related
- Suitable habitats redistribution for the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) lineages under future climate change
- Predicting the Potential Suitable Distribution of Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus in China Using a BIOMOD2 Ensemble Model.
- Prediction of Potentially Suitable Distribution Areas and Conservation Status of Sponges
- The invasion of Solenopsis invicta in Italy: wider distribution, penetration into natural habitats, and the surrounding ant fauna
- Distribution of target-site resistance mechanisms to nicosulfuron and glyphosate in Amaranthus palmeri accessions from two different regions of Turkiye
BibTeX
@article{canturk2026possible,
title = {{Possible Shift of Suitable Distribution Habitats of Laurus nobilis L. in Türkiye with the Effects of Global Climate Change}},
author = {Uğur Cantürk and İsmail Koç and Ramazan Erdem and Ayşe Öztürk Pulatoğlu and Hakan Şevik and Halil Barış Özel and Fatih Adıgüzel and Nuri Kaan Özkazanç},
journal = {Atmosphere},
year = {2026},
month = may,
doi = {10.3390/atmos17050516},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17050516},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Possible Shift of Suitable Distribution Habitats of Laurus nobilis L. in Türkiye with the Effects of Global Climate Change
AU - Uğur Cantürk
AU - İsmail Koç
AU - Ramazan Erdem
AU - Ayşe Öztürk Pulatoğlu
AU - Hakan Şevik
AU - Halil Barış Özel
AU - Fatih Adıgüzel
AU - Nuri Kaan Özkazanç
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/05/18
JO - Atmosphere
DO - 10.3390/atmos17050516
UR - https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17050516
AB - Climate change poses significant threats to Mediterranean plant species, including Laurus nobilis L., an ecologically and economically important tree. This study evaluates potential shifts in its suitable distribution areas across Türkiye under future climate scenarios [Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) and 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5)] using an ensemble species distribution model incorporating ten algorithms. Key environmental drivers—elevation, annual mean temperature (Bio1), and evaporation including sublimation and transpiration (evspsbl)—were identified as critical factors influencing habitat suitability. Results indicate substantial spatial redistributions, with habitat losses projected in inland transition zones toward continental climates, particularly in parts of the Aegean and Black Sea regions. The current suitable distribution area across the country, approximately 18.48%, could rise to 18.55% by 2040 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and to 18.76% by 2060 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, without human intervention, the species’ establishment in these new suitable distribution areas is not considered possible. Moreover, it has been determined that the suitable distribution area of the species could decrease to 17.48% by 2060 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and to 17.31% by 2080 under the SSP5-85 scenario. This result indicates that there could be a loss of more than 8% of the suitable distribution area between 2060 and 2080, according to the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Conversely, limited expansions may occur in specific areas, including the northern Aegean and the Hatay-Antep region. By 2100, despite periodic fluctuations, a net decline in suitable habitats is expected under both scenarios. Notably, spatial analysis reveals that while some newly suitable areas may emerge, natural migration will likely be insufficient for population persistence, necessitating human-assisted adaptation strategies. These findings underscore the need for proactive conservation measures, such as identifying climate-resilient provenances, assisted migration, and targeted reforestation in future suitable zones. Given that most Turkish forests are state-managed, collaboration with the General Directorate of Forestry is essential to integrate climate adaptation into long-term management plans. This study provides a framework for mitigating climate-induced habitat loss in L. nobilis while offering insights applicable to other vulnerable Mediterranean species facing similar threats.
SN - 2073-4433
ER -