Predicting the Potential Suitable Distribution of Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus in China Using a BIOMOD2 Ensemble Model.
4 affiliations
- 1Zhejiang Provincial Plant Protection, Quarantine and Pesticide Management Station, Hangzhou 310020, China.
- 2State Key Laboratory for Quality and Safety of Agro-Products, Key Laboratory of Biotechnology in Plant Protection of MOA of China and Zhejiang Province, Institute of Plant Protection and Microbiology, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310021, China.
- 3College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China.
- 4Centre of Agro-Technology and Extension of Qujiang, Quzhou 324002, China.
Abstract
Tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV) is an emerging tobamovirus that threatens tomato production and seedling trade. We used a BIOMOD2 ensemble to model present and future environmental suitability in China from 35 screened occurrence records, climatic predictors, and agricultural context data. Climate projections were based on BCC-CSM2-MR under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 for the 2050s and 2090s. The ensemble achieved calibration TSS = 0.831 and AUC/ROC = 0.958. Spatial-block evaluation was lower and more variable, so the calibration metrics do not demonstrate equally strong geographic transferability. Bio6 and bio15 were the leading predictors, followed by bio5 and bio13. At the primary AUCroc threshold of 0.441, the current suitable area was 44.35 × 10⁴ km² (approximately 4.62% of China's land area), concentrated in warm, humid eastern and southern regions. Future estimates depend on the selected GCM and binary threshold. The maps identify environmental suitability and monitoring priorities rather than epidemic probability.
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BibTeX
@article{shou2026predicting,
title = {{Predicting the Potential Suitable Distribution of Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus in China Using a BIOMOD2 Ensemble Model.}},
author = {Linfei Shou and Yuxi Wang and Yaqian Shang and Jiaqi Lu and Min Liu and Shuxing Zhou and Jianzhong Li and Jinming Zhang},
journal = {Biology},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3390/biology15191743},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42883416},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Predicting the Potential Suitable Distribution of Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus in China Using a BIOMOD2 Ensemble Model.
AU - Linfei Shou
AU - Yuxi Wang
AU - Yaqian Shang
AU - Jiaqi Lu
AU - Min Liu
AU - Shuxing Zhou
AU - Jianzhong Li
AU - Jinming Zhang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/02
JO - Biology
DO - 10.3390/biology15191743
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42883416
AB - Tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV) is an emerging tobamovirus that threatens tomato production and seedling trade. We used a BIOMOD2 ensemble to model present and future environmental suitability in China from 35 screened occurrence records, climatic predictors, and agricultural context data. Climate projections were based on BCC-CSM2-MR under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 for the 2050s and 2090s. The ensemble achieved calibration TSS = 0.831 and AUC/ROC = 0.958. Spatial-block evaluation was lower and more variable, so the calibration metrics do not demonstrate equally strong geographic transferability. Bio6 and bio15 were the leading predictors, followed by bio5 and bio13. At the primary AUCroc threshold of 0.441, the current suitable area was 44.35 × 10⁴ km² (approximately 4.62% of China's land area), concentrated in warm, humid eastern and southern regions. Future estimates depend on the selected GCM and binary threshold. The maps identify environmental suitability and monitoring priorities rather than epidemic probability.
SN - 2079-7737
ER -