Atmospheric pollution contributed to destabilizing a small mammal community amid four decades of environmental changes
- 1Department of Ecology, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
Abstract
In the recent decades, climatic and land-use changes paralleled major decreases in atmospheric pollution, but unclear is how these concomitant changes shape ecological dynamics. We analyzed 39 years (1986-2024) of semiannual abundances for six small-mammal species in the Black Triangle of Europe (Czechia), a region historically-marked by acidic rains causing forest diebacks and toxic lead (Pb) deposition. We combined these small-mammal data with monthly time series of atmospheric pollution, vegetation index (NDVI), meteorology and soil moisture. We used Empirical Dynamic Modelling (EDM) to infer chaos, recover species-species and environment-species causal relationships, recover time-varying interactions, and perform out-of-sample forecasts. Small mammal populations were causally affected by atmospheric pollution, and its abrupt decline in the late 1990s likely triggered a delayed critical transition of community composition. Pollution primarily affected the dominant omnivores and strengthened the interactions among species, a hallmark of instability. We identified a second route to chaos with a role of vegetation dynamics and soil moisture that was especially strong on shrews. Our feedback-loop analysis suggests how pollution and other environmental changes favored destabilizing, positive feedbacks. Forecasting of these chaotic dynamics improved when adding the relevant environmental predictors, demonstrating that the unpredictability of chaotic systems can slightly improve when we identify the main drivers of interactions in a network, offering hope for anticipating the future of complex ecosystems. Our study offers a unique retrospective of the destabilizing effects of pollution, an overlooked macro-ecological driver.
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BibTeX
@misc{rota2026atmospheric,
title = {{Atmospheric pollution contributed to destabilizing a small mammal community amid four decades of environmental changes}},
author = {T. Rota and O. Rakovec and R. Sevcik and J. Zima and V. Bejcek and K. Stastny and F. Sedlacek and J. Sindelar and A. Sipkov and V. Chrastny and W. M. Hochachka and M. Zarybnicka},
howpublished = {bioRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.64898/2026.11.03.764082},
url = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.11.03.764082v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Atmospheric pollution contributed to destabilizing a small mammal community amid four decades of environmental changes
AU - T. Rota
AU - O. Rakovec
AU - R. Sevcik
AU - J. Zima
AU - V. Bejcek
AU - K. Stastny
AU - F. Sedlacek
AU - J. Sindelar
AU - A. Sipkov
AU - V. Chrastny
AU - W. M. Hochachka
AU - M. Zarybnicka
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/03
PB - bioRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.11.03.764082
UR - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.11.03.764082v1
AB - In the recent decades, climatic and land-use changes paralleled major decreases in atmospheric pollution, but unclear is how these concomitant changes shape ecological dynamics. We analyzed 39 years (1986-2024) of semiannual abundances for six small-mammal species in the Black Triangle of Europe (Czechia), a region historically-marked by acidic rains causing forest diebacks and toxic lead (Pb) deposition. We combined these small-mammal data with monthly time series of atmospheric pollution, vegetation index (NDVI), meteorology and soil moisture. We used Empirical Dynamic Modelling (EDM) to infer chaos, recover species-species and environment-species causal relationships, recover time-varying interactions, and perform out-of-sample forecasts. Small mammal populations were causally affected by atmospheric pollution, and its abrupt decline in the late 1990s likely triggered a delayed critical transition of community composition. Pollution primarily affected the dominant omnivores and strengthened the interactions among species, a hallmark of instability. We identified a second route to chaos with a role of vegetation dynamics and soil moisture that was especially strong on shrews. Our feedback-loop analysis suggests how pollution and other environmental changes favored destabilizing, positive feedbacks. Forecasting of these chaotic dynamics improved when adding the relevant environmental predictors, demonstrating that the unpredictability of chaotic systems can slightly improve when we identify the main drivers of interactions in a network, offering hope for anticipating the future of complex ecosystems. Our study offers a unique retrospective of the destabilizing effects of pollution, an overlooked macro-ecological driver.
ER -