Amazon carbon emissions driven by human actions amplified by droughts

@article{gatti2026amazon,
  title = {{Amazon carbon emissions driven by human actions amplified by droughts}},
  author = {Luciana V. Gatti and Camilla L. Cunha and Juan C. G. Blas and A. Scott Denning and Mariane S. Reis and Luciano Marani and Egidio Arai and Cassiano Gustavo Messias and Dhemerson E. Conciani and John B. Miller and Vanúcia Schumacher and Kleber P. Naccarato and Jose Marengo and Ane A. C. Alencar and Luciana Soler and Claudio Almeida and Lucas Gatti Domingues and Caio S. C. Correia and Raiane A. L. Neves and Carlos Nobre and Sergio M. Corrêa and Elliott Campbell and Jennifer E. Johnson and Joseph A. Berry and Alber H. Sanchez and Francine M. da Silva and Vagner L. Camilotti and Christiane Silvestrini and Filipe Loyola Lopes and Xin Lan and Gabrielle Pétron and Marcio Malacarne and Guilherme B. M. Machado},
  journal = {Nature},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1038/s41586-026-11168-1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-11168-1},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

TY  - JOUR
TI  - Amazon carbon emissions driven by human actions amplified by droughts
AU  - Luciana V. Gatti
AU  - Camilla L. Cunha
AU  - Juan C. G. Blas
AU  - A. Scott Denning
AU  - Mariane S. Reis
AU  - Luciano Marani
AU  - Egidio Arai
AU  - Cassiano Gustavo Messias
AU  - Dhemerson E. Conciani
AU  - John B. Miller
AU  - Vanúcia Schumacher
AU  - Kleber P. Naccarato
AU  - Jose Marengo
AU  - Ane A. C. Alencar
AU  - Luciana Soler
AU  - Claudio Almeida
AU  - Lucas Gatti Domingues
AU  - Caio S. C. Correia
AU  - Raiane A. L. Neves
AU  - Carlos Nobre
AU  - Sergio M. Corrêa
AU  - Elliott Campbell
AU  - Jennifer E. Johnson
AU  - Joseph A. Berry
AU  - Alber H. Sanchez
AU  - Francine M. da Silva
AU  - Vagner L. Camilotti
AU  - Christiane Silvestrini
AU  - Filipe Loyola Lopes
AU  - Xin Lan
AU  - Gabrielle Pétron
AU  - Marcio Malacarne
AU  - Guilherme B. M. Machado
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/21
JO  - Nature
DO  - 10.1038/s41586-026-11168-1
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-11168-1
AB  - The Amazon carbon sink is weakening as deforestation1–5, rising tree mortality6–8 and climate change disrupt the climatic conditions that sustain a humid tropical forest9–11. Forest loss reduces precipitation, increases temperatures and lengthens the dry season, driving higher carbon emissions1–4,11,12. Climate stress is stronger in more deforested regions, rendering forests progressively more flammable1,9,13. Large-scale climate events, such as El Niño, further amplify regional climate impacts9,14–17. Here we present an analysis of 15 years of Amazonian carbon fluxes derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements. We determine a carbon balance of 0.32 ± 0.08 PgC yr−1, with fires acting as the dominant source (0.40 ± 0.07 PgC yr−1) and forest uptake becoming increasingly unable to offset emissions. Furthermore, we investigate key drivers of the carbon emissions of Amazonia and identify three distinct year groups. Group 1 (2011–2014, 2017 and 2018) represents the role of the Amazon in the global carbon balance (0.11 ± 0.08 PgC yr−1) during wetter years with low human activity, such as deforestation, biomass burning and degradation. Group 2 (2019–2022) represents Amazon carbon emissions (0.43 ± 0.13 PgC yr−1) from human activities (mainly deforestation and degradation) during years with low climatic stress. Group 3 (2010, 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024) has the highest carbon emissions (0.49 ± 0.07 PgC yr−1) and comprises warm and dry years (high climate stress), such as El Niño and the warming of the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean, associated with biomass burning.
SN  - 0028-0836
SN  - 1476-4687
ER  -