Temperature-induced shift in 21st-century Amazon droughts
- 1Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
- 2Earth Observation Unit, Portuguese Institute of Sea and Atmosphere
- 3Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), University of Lisbon
Abstract
The Amazon Basin (AB) has been experiencing a transition in hydroclimatic extremes induced by climate change; however, the relative contributions of precipitation deficits versus rising atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) remain poorly understood. Here, we analyzed and ranked AB droughts from 1980 to 2024, revealing that the 2023/24 event was unprecedented, affecting 88% of the basin with a magnitude four times greater than the average top-5 droughts. Notably, other years since 2020 also appear in the top rankings, underscoring how extreme conditions have persisted and intensified since the beginning of the decade. Our analysis of the AED contribution suggests a regime shift occurring during the 21st century. While earlier droughts were primarily precipitation-driven, the post-2005 era is characterized by a temperature-driven regime, where climate change-induced warming increases AED, acting as the primary intensifying mechanism for exceptional drought events. This intensification is further linked to sea surface temperature anomalies in the Tropical Indian, Tropical Pacific, and North Atlantic oceans.
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BibTeX
@article{albuquerque2026temperatureinduced,
title = {{Temperature-induced shift in 21st-century Amazon droughts}},
author = {Ronaldo Albuquerque and Djacinto M. dos Santos and Vitor F. V. V. Miranda and Leonardo F. Peres and Ricardo M. Trigo and Ana M. B. Nunes and Margarida L. R. Liberato and Célia M. Gouveia and Renata Libonati},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.1038/s41598-026-62139-5},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-62139-5},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Temperature-induced shift in 21st-century Amazon droughts
AU - Ronaldo Albuquerque
AU - Djacinto M. dos Santos
AU - Vitor F. V. V. Miranda
AU - Leonardo F. Peres
AU - Ricardo M. Trigo
AU - Ana M. B. Nunes
AU - Margarida L. R. Liberato
AU - Célia M. Gouveia
AU - Renata Libonati
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/01
JO - Scientific Reports
DO - 10.1038/s41598-026-62139-5
UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-62139-5
AB - The Amazon Basin (AB) has been experiencing a transition in hydroclimatic extremes induced by climate change; however, the relative contributions of precipitation deficits versus rising atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) remain poorly understood. Here, we analyzed and ranked AB droughts from 1980 to 2024, revealing that the 2023/24 event was unprecedented, affecting 88% of the basin with a magnitude four times greater than the average top-5 droughts. Notably, other years since 2020 also appear in the top rankings, underscoring how extreme conditions have persisted and intensified since the beginning of the decade. Our analysis of the AED contribution suggests a regime shift occurring during the 21st century. While earlier droughts were primarily precipitation-driven, the post-2005 era is characterized by a temperature-driven regime, where climate change-induced warming increases AED, acting as the primary intensifying mechanism for exceptional drought events. This intensification is further linked to sea surface temperature anomalies in the Tropical Indian, Tropical Pacific, and North Atlantic oceans.
SN - 2045-2322
ER -