Burden of malignant melanoma among the elderly population in East Asia from 1990 to 2023 and machine learning projection to 2040
6 affiliations
- 1Gansu Provincial Hospital & The Third Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
- 2School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
- 3Key Laboratory of Molecular Diagnostics and Precision Medicine for Surgical Oncology in Gansu Province, Gansu Provincial Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
- 4NHC Key Laboratory of Diagnosis and Therapy of Gastrointestinal Tumor, Gansu Provincial Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
- 5The First Clinical Medical College of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
- 6The Second Hospital & Clinical Medical School, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
Abstract
Background: Malignant melanoma (MM) is an emerging public health concern in East Asia’s rapidly aging population. This study assessed the burden of MM among older adults aged ≥60 years from 1990 to 2023 and projected age-standardized rates to 2040. Methods: Using GBD 2023 data, temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression and age–period–cohort analysis, together with age-, sex-, and location-specific comparisons. Future trends were projected using a multi-model forecasting framework incorporating ARIMA-derived temporal features. Seven candidate models were compared for each location–indicator combination. Historical data were chronologically divided into an 80% training set (1990–2016) and a 20% independent testing set (2017–2023), with model selection performed using five-fold rolling time-series cross-validation within the training set. Prediction intervals were generated using residual bootstrap. Results: From 1990 to 2023, MM-related deaths among older adults in East Asia increased from 3,417.59 to 7,476.55, while DALYs increased from 116,499.14 to 196,356.14. Joinpoint analysis showed significant overall increases in ASIR and ASPR, whereas ASMR and ASDR exhibited only small, non-significant overall changes. This divergence is consistent with an important contribution from population aging and growth of the older population to the increasing absolute burden. Women generally had higher incidence and prevalence rates, whereas men had higher mortality and DALY rates. Projections to 2040 showed substantial variation across locations, with mortality and DALY rates expected to reach a plateau in several locations. Conclusion: The increasing MM burden and distinct sex and regional patterns require targeted early-detection strategies and equitable access to dermatological care. Future studies should use regional, subtype-specific cancer registries to evaluate ALM-specific burden and inform prevention strategies for East Asian populations.
Related
- Definitive Hypofractionated Radiotherapy in Elderly Patients With Non-melanoma Skin Cancer: Predicting Complete Response Using a Machine Learning-based Approach
- Clinical outcomes and recovery impact of implementing enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) pathway in elderly patients with gynecological malignant tumors
- Pancreatic solid papillary neoplasm with high-grade malignant transformation and multiple hepatic metastases in an elderly male: a case report
- Deep learning reveals prognostic information beyond AJCC stage in routine histopathology of early-stage melanoma: the population-based D-ESMEL study
- Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection as a Diagnostic and Minimally Invasive Therapeutic Excision Modality for Primary Anorectal Malignant Melanoma
BibTeX
@article{liu2026burden,
title = {{Burden of malignant melanoma among the elderly population in East Asia from 1990 to 2023 and machine learning projection to 2040}},
author = {Qian Liu and Jianfeng Ma and Hao Yang and Na Liu and Chen Liu and Yiming Liu and Sheng Li and Yongfeng Wang},
journal = {PLOS One},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0357767},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0357767},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Burden of malignant melanoma among the elderly population in East Asia from 1990 to 2023 and machine learning projection to 2040
AU - Qian Liu
AU - Jianfeng Ma
AU - Hao Yang
AU - Na Liu
AU - Chen Liu
AU - Yiming Liu
AU - Sheng Li
AU - Yongfeng Wang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/11
JO - PLOS One
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0357767
UR - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0357767
AB - Background: Malignant melanoma (MM) is an emerging public health concern in East Asia’s rapidly aging population. This study assessed the burden of MM among older adults aged ≥60 years from 1990 to 2023 and projected age-standardized rates to 2040. Methods: Using GBD 2023 data, temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression and age–period–cohort analysis, together with age-, sex-, and location-specific comparisons. Future trends were projected using a multi-model forecasting framework incorporating ARIMA-derived temporal features. Seven candidate models were compared for each location–indicator combination. Historical data were chronologically divided into an 80% training set (1990–2016) and a 20% independent testing set (2017–2023), with model selection performed using five-fold rolling time-series cross-validation within the training set. Prediction intervals were generated using residual bootstrap. Results: From 1990 to 2023, MM-related deaths among older adults in East Asia increased from 3,417.59 to 7,476.55, while DALYs increased from 116,499.14 to 196,356.14. Joinpoint analysis showed significant overall increases in ASIR and ASPR, whereas ASMR and ASDR exhibited only small, non-significant overall changes. This divergence is consistent with an important contribution from population aging and growth of the older population to the increasing absolute burden. Women generally had higher incidence and prevalence rates, whereas men had higher mortality and DALY rates. Projections to 2040 showed substantial variation across locations, with mortality and DALY rates expected to reach a plateau in several locations. Conclusion: The increasing MM burden and distinct sex and regional patterns require targeted early-detection strategies and equitable access to dermatological care. Future studies should use regional, subtype-specific cancer registries to evaluate ALM-specific burden and inform prevention strategies for East Asian populations.
SN - 1932-6203
ER -