Relative Influence of Coronal Properties of CME in their Evolution and Geo-effectiveness
Abstract
Uncertainties in the coronal mass ejection (CME) properties near the Sun remain a major challenge for accurate space weather forecasting. Understanding the sensitivity of CME evolution to the initial parameters is therefore essential for improving the predictions. We investigate the influence of physical CME properties prescribed at 0.1 AU on their subsequent heliospheric propagation and geoeffectiveness at Earth, using the SWASTi framework. We perform a systematically sampled ensemble of 400 global magnetohydrodynamic simulations by varying the initial CME density, speed, magnetic flux and temperature. We quantify the relative influence of these parameters on CME evolution, plasma properties at L1, and the resulting geomagnetic response. The analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of influence: initial speed primarily controls the peak radial velocity and arrival time at L1, magnetic flux controls the magnetic-field strength, and density governs the peak density and magnetopause compression. Primary parameters account for only half the output variance, highlighting the collective influence of other parameters. Density exhibits the broadest influence across the analyzed outputs. We find a mean arrival-time sensitivities of 2.43h per 100 km/s variation in injection speed and 1.99h per 10−18 kg/m3 variation in injection density. The CME volume exhibits a two-phase evolution, characterized by an initial gradual expansion followed by a power-law regime with a median expansion index of 2.38. These results establish parameter-specific priorities for CME forecasting, highlighting the importance of constraining CME speed for arrival-time prediction, density for duration and pressure-driven effects, and magnetic flux for geomagnetic response at Earth.
Related
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BibTeX
@misc{athalathil2026relative,
title = {{Relative Influence of Coronal Properties of CME in their Evolution and Geo-effectiveness}},
author = {Jithu J Athalathil and Asif M Mandayapuram and Prateek Mayank and Bhargav Vaidya},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.41376},
eprint = {2610.41376},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41376},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Relative Influence of Coronal Properties of CME in their Evolution and Geo-effectiveness
AU - Jithu J Athalathil
AU - Asif M Mandayapuram
AU - Prateek Mayank
AU - Bhargav Vaidya
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.41376
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41376
AB - Uncertainties in the coronal mass ejection (CME) properties near the Sun remain a major challenge for accurate space weather forecasting. Understanding the sensitivity of CME evolution to the initial parameters is therefore essential for improving the predictions. We investigate the influence of physical CME properties prescribed at 0.1 AU on their subsequent heliospheric propagation and geoeffectiveness at Earth, using the SWASTi framework. We perform a systematically sampled ensemble of 400 global magnetohydrodynamic simulations by varying the initial CME density, speed, magnetic flux and temperature. We quantify the relative influence of these parameters on CME evolution, plasma properties at L1, and the resulting geomagnetic response. The analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of influence: initial speed primarily controls the peak radial velocity and arrival time at L1, magnetic flux controls the magnetic-field strength, and density governs the peak density and magnetopause compression. Primary parameters account for only half the output variance, highlighting the collective influence of other parameters. Density exhibits the broadest influence across the analyzed outputs. We find a mean arrival-time sensitivities of 2.43h per 100 km/s variation in injection speed and 1.99h per 10^−18 kg/m^3 variation in injection density. The CME volume exhibits a two-phase evolution, characterized by an initial gradual expansion followed by a power-law regime with a median expansion index of 2.38. These results establish parameter-specific priorities for CME forecasting, highlighting the importance of constraining CME speed for arrival-time prediction, density for duration and pressure-driven effects, and magnetic flux for geomagnetic response at Earth.
ER -