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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Environmental Research Letters

Increasing favorability for intense tropical cyclone activity in the northern South China Sea

  • Lijuan Ya1
  • Jieyi Ou1
  • Yongfen Zhao1
  • Zeng Shunqi1
  • Mei Liang1
  • Quanjia Zhong2
  • Jianjun Xu1
  • Shifei Tu1
  1. 1Guangdong Ocean University
  2. 2The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Open at sourcePDFDOICite

Abstract

The South China Sea (SCS) is one of the most active marginal seas for tropical cyclones (TCs) worldwide and a key region for TC hazards along the coasts of southern China, Philippines and Vietnam. However, the drivers of long-term changes in intense TC development in this region remain unclear. Here, we show that the number of TCs reaching Category 3-5 intensity has increased significantly, with more occurring in the northern SCS. This change is primarily linked to an increasing contribution of western North Pacific TCs entering through the Luzon Strait, which experience weaker land-induced weakening than those crossing the Philippine archipelago and retain greater intensity for subsequent development. After entering the SCS, reduced ocean cooling and enhanced oceanic and atmospheric conditions have increased the environmental favorability for intense TC development in the northern SCS. These results highlight the role of regional ocean-land-atmosphere interactions in reshaping where TCs reach high intensities.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{ya2026increasing,
  title = {{Increasing favorability for intense tropical cyclone activity in the northern South China Sea}},
  author = {Lijuan Ya and Jieyi Ou and Yongfen Zhao and Zeng Shunqi and Mei Liang and Quanjia Zhong and Jianjun Xu and Shifei Tu},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  month = nov,
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aebe4d},
  url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aebe4d},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Increasing favorability for intense tropical cyclone activity in the northern South China Sea
AU  - Lijuan Ya
AU  - Jieyi Ou
AU  - Yongfen Zhao
AU  - Zeng Shunqi
AU  - Mei Liang
AU  - Quanjia Zhong
AU  - Jianjun Xu
AU  - Shifei Tu
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/11/05
JO  - Environmental Research Letters
DO  - 10.1088/1748-9326/aebe4d
UR  - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aebe4d
AB  - The South China Sea (SCS) is one of the most active marginal seas for tropical cyclones (TCs) worldwide and a key region for TC hazards along the coasts of southern China, Philippines and Vietnam. However, the drivers of long-term changes in intense TC development in this region remain unclear. Here, we show that the number of TCs reaching Category 3-5 intensity has increased significantly, with more occurring in the northern SCS. This change is primarily linked to an increasing contribution of western North Pacific TCs entering through the Luzon Strait, which experience weaker land-induced weakening than those crossing the Philippine archipelago and retain greater intensity for subsequent development. After entering the SCS, reduced ocean cooling and enhanced oceanic and atmospheric conditions have increased the environmental favorability for intense TC development in the northern SCS. These results highlight the role of regional ocean-land-atmosphere interactions in reshaping where TCs reach high intensities.
SN  - 1748-9326
ER  -