Hysteresis of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity under multiple CO ₂ removal scenarios
4 affiliations
- 1Jeonbuk National University
- 2Kyungpook National University
- 3Seoul National University
- 4Pohang University of Science and Technology
Abstract
Tropical cyclone (TC) activity is expected to change under future climate mitigation pathways, yet its response to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) remains poorly understood. Here, we investigate the hysteretic response of the genesis potential index (GPI) over the western North Pacific (WNP) using an Earth system model under four idealized CDR scenarios with different peak CO ₂ concentrations. Although the WNP-mean GPI exhibits no significant hysteresis between the ramp-down and ramp-up periods at comparable CO ₂ concentrations across all scenarios, the underlying dynamical mechanisms fundamentally differ depending on the forcing magnitude. In the highest-to-moderate forcing scenarios, this lack of basin-mean hysteresis arises from a robust spatial compensation between a suppressed western WNP and an enhanced eastern WNP, forming a west-east dipolar pattern. This pattern is driven by an El Niño–like sea surface temperature hysteresis, which weakens the Walker circulation and alters vertical wind shear in opposite directions across the basin. Conversely, under the lowest forcing scenario, the absence of hysteresis is due to a negligible GPI response, as the El Niño–like warming remains too weak to trigger such dynamical chains. Our findings suggest a transition in the regional GPI response between the lowest and moderate forcing scenarios, indicating a nonlinear dependence of the regional TC genesis environment during CDR on the magnitude of the CO ₂ overshoot.
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BibTeX
@article{kim2026hysteresis,
title = {{Hysteresis of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity under multiple CO ₂ removal scenarios}},
author = {Han-Kyoung Kim and Jong-Yeon Park and Doo-Sun R Park and Jae-Heung Park and Mincheol Moon},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aeaf68},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeaf68},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Hysteresis of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity under multiple CO ₂ removal scenarios
AU - Han-Kyoung Kim
AU - Jong-Yeon Park
AU - Doo-Sun R Park
AU - Jae-Heung Park
AU - Mincheol Moon
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/12
JO - Environmental Research Letters
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aeaf68
UR - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeaf68
AB - Tropical cyclone (TC) activity is expected to change under future climate mitigation pathways, yet its response to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) remains poorly understood. Here, we investigate the hysteretic response of the genesis potential index (GPI) over the western North Pacific (WNP) using an Earth system model under four idealized CDR scenarios with different peak CO ₂ concentrations. Although the WNP-mean GPI exhibits no significant hysteresis between the ramp-down and ramp-up periods at comparable CO ₂ concentrations across all scenarios, the underlying dynamical mechanisms fundamentally differ depending on the forcing magnitude. In the highest-to-moderate forcing scenarios, this lack of basin-mean hysteresis arises from a robust spatial compensation between a suppressed western WNP and an enhanced eastern WNP, forming a west-east dipolar pattern. This pattern is driven by an El Niño–like sea surface temperature hysteresis, which weakens the Walker circulation and alters vertical wind shear in opposite directions across the basin. Conversely, under the lowest forcing scenario, the absence of hysteresis is due to a negligible GPI response, as the El Niño–like warming remains too weak to trigger such dynamical chains. Our findings suggest a transition in the regional GPI response between the lowest and moderate forcing scenarios, indicating a nonlinear dependence of the regional TC genesis environment during CDR on the magnitude of the CO ₂ overshoot.
SN - 1748-9326
ER -