Vaccination and Non-School NPIs Shaped Ontario's Pre-Omicron COVID-19 Hospital Burden

Abstract

We develop an age- and immunity-structured COVID-19 model with setting-specific contacts, calibrated to Ontario incidence and hospital admissions before Omicron. We simulate counterfactual vaccination strategies and contact restrictions in schools, workplaces, and other community settings, evaluating projected severe-case demand against an illustrative healthcare-capacity bench-mark. Vaccination combined with workplace and community contact restrictions keeps simulated demand within capacity. In contrast, relaxing restrictions in either setting produces large surges and repeated capacity threats, even when school restrictions remain. School-only changes produce smaller effects on severe disease. These findings highlight the value of vaccination and settingspecific contact restrictions that prioritize workplace and community settings for pathogens with adult-concentrated severe outcomes.

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BibTeX RIS

BibTeX

@misc{tuffaha2026vaccination,
  title = {{Vaccination and Non-School NPIs Shaped Ontario's Pre-Omicron COVID-19 Hospital Burden}},
  author = {M. Z. Tuffaha and D. W. Dick and J. Li and J. M. Heffernan},
  howpublished = {medRxiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.64898/2026.10.14.26365553},
  url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.14.26365553v1},
  note = {CC BY},
}

RIS

TY  - UNPB
TI  - Vaccination and Non-School NPIs Shaped Ontario's Pre-Omicron COVID-19 Hospital Burden
AU  - M. Z. Tuffaha
AU  - D. W. Dick
AU  - J. Li
AU  - J. M. Heffernan
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/14
PB  - medRxiv
DO  - 10.64898/2026.10.14.26365553
UR  - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.14.26365553v1
AB  - We develop an age- and immunity-structured COVID-19 model with setting-specific contacts, calibrated to Ontario incidence and hospital admissions before Omicron. We simulate counterfactual vaccination strategies and contact restrictions in schools, workplaces, and other community settings, evaluating projected severe-case demand against an illustrative healthcare-capacity bench-mark. Vaccination combined with workplace and community contact restrictions keeps simulated demand within capacity. In contrast, relaxing restrictions in either setting produces large surges and repeated capacity threats, even when school restrictions remain. School-only changes produce smaller effects on severe disease. These findings highlight the value of vaccination and settingspecific contact restrictions that prioritize workplace and community settings for pathogens with adult-concentrated severe outcomes.
ER  -

Abstract

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