Can Class 3 e-bikes help meet California’s VMT and climate goals? A mobility-substitution screening
- 1Université Grenoble Alpes ILCEA4/SoCLE
- 2Université Grenoble Alpes
Abstract
Transportation is California’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, and vehicle electrification alone does not reduce vehicle-miles traveled (VMT). This paper asks whether Class 3 e-bikes—pedal-assisted to 28 mph—could replace some of the intermediate-distance commutes that conventional bicycles rarely serve. Using 2024 LOCUS mobility data for Los Angeles County, we define an addressable commute band as weekday peak-period Motorized travel of 5–15 miles one way. This market contains 11.98 million passenger-miles per weekday, while conventional bicycles account for only about 0.3% of passenger-miles under the same filters. European speed-pedelec evidence shows that these distances are within routine operating range. Because LOCUS includes e-bikes within Motorized travel, the scenarios explicitly vary both the automobile share of that category and the share of Class 3 travel that actually replaces car travel. In the upper-bound full-substitution case, a 10% shift removes 283 million vehicle-miles and 101.6 ktCO2e per year. That is 5.6 times LA Metro’s published bikeway VMT benefit, mainly because the trips considered here are longer. Yet the same scenario removes only about 0.43% of modeled county passenger VMT, and the 30% stress test about 1.3%. Class 3 e-bikes are therefore a potentially important intermediate-distance option, but only one part of the much larger mobility transition required in California.
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BibTeX
@article{tounsi2026class,
title = {{Can Class 3 e-bikes help meet California’s VMT and climate goals? A mobility-substitution screening}},
author = {Christophe Roncato Tounsi and Ryan Powers},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aeaf6a},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeaf6a},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Can Class 3 e-bikes help meet California’s VMT and climate goals? A mobility-substitution screening
AU - Christophe Roncato Tounsi
AU - Ryan Powers
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/13
JO - Environmental Research Letters
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aeaf6a
UR - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeaf6a
AB - Transportation is California’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, and vehicle electrification alone does not reduce vehicle-miles traveled (VMT). This paper asks whether Class 3 e-bikes—pedal-assisted to 28 mph—could replace some of the intermediate-distance commutes that conventional bicycles rarely serve. Using 2024 LOCUS mobility data for Los Angeles County, we define an addressable commute band as weekday peak-period Motorized travel of 5–15 miles one way. This market contains 11.98 million passenger-miles per weekday, while conventional bicycles account for only about 0.3% of passenger-miles under the same filters. European speed-pedelec evidence shows that these distances are within routine operating range. Because LOCUS includes e-bikes within Motorized travel, the scenarios explicitly vary both the automobile share of that category and the share of Class 3 travel that actually replaces car travel. In the upper-bound full-substitution case, a 10% shift removes 283 million vehicle-miles and 101.6 ktCO2e per year. That is 5.6 times LA Metro’s published bikeway VMT benefit, mainly because the trips considered here are longer. Yet the same scenario removes only about 0.43% of modeled county passenger VMT, and the 30% stress test about 1.3%. Class 3 e-bikes are therefore a potentially important intermediate-distance option, but only one part of the much larger mobility transition required in California.
SN - 1748-9326
ER -