Reliability-constrained cost optimization of standalone photovoltaic water pumping systems under time-structured irrigation demand
- 1Department of Electrical Engineering, Yildiz Technical University
- 2Department of Electrical-Electronics Engineering, Istanbul Beykent University
- 3Department of Electric Power Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Abstract
Photovoltaic (PV)-powered water pumping systems (WPS) are increasingly used for agricultural irrigation, yet their reliability is governed not only by annual energy balance but also by the timing of water withdrawal relative to solar availability and hydraulic storage recovery. This study develops a reliability-constrained simulation–optimization framework for a standalone PV water pumping system (PVWPS) in Konya, Türkiye, and evaluates four equal-daily-volume irrigation demand topologies: uniform, morning-only, split morning–evening, and greenhouse-pulsed demand. To address the stochastic and mixed-integer nature of the sizing problem, the analysis validates the metaheuristic search using an enumeration-refined design-space check, distinguishes nominal boundary designs from uncertainty-aware margin designs, and adds sensitivity analyses for seasonal demand redistribution, groundwater-head increase, evaporation, pump-efficiency degradation, transient power loss, and pulse-window flow adequacy. Enumeration-refined nominal designs satisfy the deterministic reliability target, with optimal PV capacities between 2.52 and 2.70 kW and hydraulic storage volumes between 27.10 and 29.80 m3. Relative to uniform demand, the morning-only, split, and greenhouse-pulsed profiles reduce equivalent shortage duration by approximately 72%, 54%, and 58%, respectively, while cost-of-water differences remain moderate. Monte Carlo testing shows that deterministic just-feasible designs are sensitive to demand uncertainty; tightening the nominal LLP target from 0.010 to 0.008 reduces the mean Monte Carlo LLP below 0.010 for all scenarios, but does not guarantee strict high-percentile chance-constrained feasibility. The results indicate that irrigation timing is an important operational co-design factor for hydraulic storage and shortage exposure, while practical deployment requires explicit robustness margins when groundwater drawdown, uncovered storage evaporation, pump degradation, or sub-hourly transients are expected.
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BibTeX
@article{demirci2026reliabilityconstrained,
title = {{Reliability-constrained cost optimization of standalone photovoltaic water pumping systems under time-structured irrigation demand}},
author = {Alpaslan Demirci and Pelin Özgür and Musa Terkes and Idriss Dagal and Umit Cali},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.1038/s41598-026-65280-3},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-65280-3},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Reliability-constrained cost optimization of standalone photovoltaic water pumping systems under time-structured irrigation demand
AU - Alpaslan Demirci
AU - Pelin Özgür
AU - Musa Terkes
AU - Idriss Dagal
AU - Umit Cali
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/01
JO - Scientific Reports
DO - 10.1038/s41598-026-65280-3
UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-65280-3
AB - Photovoltaic (PV)-powered water pumping systems (WPS) are increasingly used for agricultural irrigation, yet their reliability is governed not only by annual energy balance but also by the timing of water withdrawal relative to solar availability and hydraulic storage recovery. This study develops a reliability-constrained simulation–optimization framework for a standalone PV water pumping system (PVWPS) in Konya, Türkiye, and evaluates four equal-daily-volume irrigation demand topologies: uniform, morning-only, split morning–evening, and greenhouse-pulsed demand. To address the stochastic and mixed-integer nature of the sizing problem, the analysis validates the metaheuristic search using an enumeration-refined design-space check, distinguishes nominal boundary designs from uncertainty-aware margin designs, and adds sensitivity analyses for seasonal demand redistribution, groundwater-head increase, evaporation, pump-efficiency degradation, transient power loss, and pulse-window flow adequacy. Enumeration-refined nominal designs satisfy the deterministic reliability target, with optimal PV capacities between 2.52 and 2.70 kW and hydraulic storage volumes between 27.10 and 29.80 m3. Relative to uniform demand, the morning-only, split, and greenhouse-pulsed profiles reduce equivalent shortage duration by approximately 72%, 54%, and 58%, respectively, while cost-of-water differences remain moderate. Monte Carlo testing shows that deterministic just-feasible designs are sensitive to demand uncertainty; tightening the nominal LLP target from 0.010 to 0.008 reduces the mean Monte Carlo LLP below 0.010 for all scenarios, but does not guarantee strict high-percentile chance-constrained feasibility. The results indicate that irrigation timing is an important operational co-design factor for hydraulic storage and shortage exposure, while practical deployment requires explicit robustness margins when groundwater drawdown, uncovered storage evaporation, pump degradation, or sub-hourly transients are expected.
SN - 2045-2322
ER -