A Statistical Analysis of Multi-Decadal Trends in Temperature, Precipitation and Drought Indices in Eastern and Southeastern Kazakhstan Between 1981 and 2023
7 affiliations
- 1Physical and Economic Geography Department, Faculty of Natural Sciences, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana 010008, Kazakhstan
- 2School of Information Technology and Engineering (SITE), Kazakh British Technical University, Almaty 050000, Kazakhstan
- 3Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, 71 Al-Farabi, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan
- 4Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, MI 49008, USA
- 5International Scientific Complex “Astana”, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan
- 6National Hydrogeological Service Kazhydrogeology, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan
- 7Faculty of Water Resource and Information Technology, Kazakh National Agrarian Research University, Almaty 050000, Kazakhstan
Abstract
This study analyzed precipitation and air temperature in the Zhambyl, Almaty, Zhetysu, Abay, and East Kazakhstan regions of Kazakhstan using data from the national meteorological network of the RSE Kazhydromet. The purpose of the study was to reveal the climatic changes and their spatial distribution throughout the study area. A modified Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s Slope estimator were applied to analyze aridity conditions in combination with the drought indices SPEI and Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient, enabling analysis of the magnitude and statistical significance of trend changes from April to September for the period 1981 to 2023. The magnitude of the observed trends of the mean growing-season temperature increased by 0.211 °C decade−1, while precipitation declined by 2.074 mm decade−1, which indicates a decrease in moisture availability for crops in the southeast and east of Kazakhstan. The results of this study may be of interest to agricultural specialists, ecologists, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and hydrologists to develop activities aimed at preventing threats and mitigating the effects of climate change in Kazakhstan. The use of the above statistical methods in combination with drought indices is relevant in the context of climate change and worsening food security and can serve as a good indicator for determining when significant changes in climatic parameters occurred, which will be valuable information for making management decisions.
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BibTeX
@article{mukanov2026statistical,
title = {{A Statistical Analysis of Multi-Decadal Trends in Temperature, Precipitation and Drought Indices in Eastern and Southeastern Kazakhstan Between 1981 and 2023}},
author = {Yerbolat Mukanov and Ranida Arystanova and Jay Sagin and Kanat Samarkhanov and Talgat Usmanov and Saken Baisholanov and Asset Arystanov and Asima Koshim and Baktybek Duisebek and Alua Zhukenova},
journal = {Agronomy},
year = {2026},
month = may,
doi = {10.3390/agronomy16111097},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy16111097},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - A Statistical Analysis of Multi-Decadal Trends in Temperature, Precipitation and Drought Indices in Eastern and Southeastern Kazakhstan Between 1981 and 2023
AU - Yerbolat Mukanov
AU - Ranida Arystanova
AU - Jay Sagin
AU - Kanat Samarkhanov
AU - Talgat Usmanov
AU - Saken Baisholanov
AU - Asset Arystanov
AU - Asima Koshim
AU - Baktybek Duisebek
AU - Alua Zhukenova
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/05/31
JO - Agronomy
DO - 10.3390/agronomy16111097
UR - https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy16111097
AB - This study analyzed precipitation and air temperature in the Zhambyl, Almaty, Zhetysu, Abay, and East Kazakhstan regions of Kazakhstan using data from the national meteorological network of the RSE Kazhydromet. The purpose of the study was to reveal the climatic changes and their spatial distribution throughout the study area. A modified Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s Slope estimator were applied to analyze aridity conditions in combination with the drought indices SPEI and Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient, enabling analysis of the magnitude and statistical significance of trend changes from April to September for the period 1981 to 2023. The magnitude of the observed trends of the mean growing-season temperature increased by 0.211 °C decade−1, while precipitation declined by 2.074 mm decade−1, which indicates a decrease in moisture availability for crops in the southeast and east of Kazakhstan. The results of this study may be of interest to agricultural specialists, ecologists, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and hydrologists to develop activities aimed at preventing threats and mitigating the effects of climate change in Kazakhstan. The use of the above statistical methods in combination with drought indices is relevant in the context of climate change and worsening food security and can serve as a good indicator for determining when significant changes in climatic parameters occurred, which will be valuable information for making management decisions.
SN - 2073-4395
ER -