Multi-centennial precipitation reconstructions for Dublin: comparing documentary-instrumental and circulation-based approaches
- 1National University of Ireland, Maynooth (Maynooth, Ireland)
Abstract
Long precipitation records are needed to place recent droughts and wet periods in their historical context. This study combines documentary weather accounts, early rain-gauge measurements, atmospheric-circulation and temperature indices, and tree-ring isotope evidence to reconstruct precipitation for contrasting lowland and upland water-resource domains for the Greater Dublin Area (GDA). We develop and evaluate three reconstruction products: a monthly documentary-instrumental reconstruction extending to 1711 (the Jenkinson series); a monthly statistical ensemble, combining Lasso and Random Forest models, extending to 1748; and a tree-ring δ ¹⁸ O reconstruction of May-August precipitation extending to 1200 CE. Monthly reconstructions are evaluated against 1 km gridded observations over their common overlap period, 1865–1977. Both monthly reconstructions reproduce observed rainfall variability, but the documentary-instrumental Jenkinson reconstruction generally shows stronger agreement at monthly, seasonal, annual and event scales. The statistical ensemble provides an independent, circulation-informed estimate but produces smoother variability and underestimates some extremes. The tree-ring reconstruction shows weaker interannual agreement with Dublin rainfall but supplies a substantially longer perspective on summer hydroclimatic variability. However, superior performance against observations does not necessarily translate into greater reliability during the reconstructed period. The two monthly reconstructions diverge most strongly in winter and spring before the mid-nineteenth century, potentially reflecting snow- and sleet-related undercatch in early precipitation measurements which affects the Jenkinson series. This divergence has important consequences for inferred long-term trends. The Jenkinson series indicates large and frequently significant increases in winter and spring precipitation that are not evident in the statistical ensemble. In contrast, both reconstructions show substantial, persistent and often statistically significant decreases in summer precipitation, although these are generally larger in the Jenkinson series. Used together, the reconstructions extend the evidence available for evaluating historical droughts, pluvials and water-resource vulnerability in the Greater Dublin Area beyond the instrumental period.
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BibTeX
@article{horvath2026multicentennial,
title = {{Multi-centennial precipitation reconstructions for Dublin: comparing documentary-instrumental and circulation-based approaches}},
author = {Csaba Horvath and Conor Murphy and Ciara Ryan},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.5194/cp-22-1963-2026},
url = {https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/22/1963/2026/},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Multi-centennial precipitation reconstructions for Dublin: comparing documentary-instrumental and circulation-based approaches
AU - Csaba Horvath
AU - Conor Murphy
AU - Ciara Ryan
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/06
JO - Climate of the Past
DO - 10.5194/cp-22-1963-2026
UR - https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/22/1963/2026/
AB - Long precipitation records are needed to place recent droughts and wet periods in their historical context. This study combines documentary weather accounts, early rain-gauge measurements, atmospheric-circulation and temperature indices, and tree-ring isotope evidence to reconstruct precipitation for contrasting lowland and upland water-resource domains for the Greater Dublin Area (GDA). We develop and evaluate three reconstruction products: a monthly documentary-instrumental reconstruction extending to 1711 (the Jenkinson series); a monthly statistical ensemble, combining Lasso and Random Forest models, extending to 1748; and a tree-ring δ ¹⁸ O reconstruction of May-August precipitation extending to 1200 CE. Monthly reconstructions are evaluated against 1 km gridded observations over their common overlap period, 1865–1977. Both monthly reconstructions reproduce observed rainfall variability, but the documentary-instrumental Jenkinson reconstruction generally shows stronger agreement at monthly, seasonal, annual and event scales. The statistical ensemble provides an independent, circulation-informed estimate but produces smoother variability and underestimates some extremes. The tree-ring reconstruction shows weaker interannual agreement with Dublin rainfall but supplies a substantially longer perspective on summer hydroclimatic variability. However, superior performance against observations does not necessarily translate into greater reliability during the reconstructed period. The two monthly reconstructions diverge most strongly in winter and spring before the mid-nineteenth century, potentially reflecting snow- and sleet-related undercatch in early precipitation measurements which affects the Jenkinson series. This divergence has important consequences for inferred long-term trends. The Jenkinson series indicates large and frequently significant increases in winter and spring precipitation that are not evident in the statistical ensemble. In contrast, both reconstructions show substantial, persistent and often statistically significant decreases in summer precipitation, although these are generally larger in the Jenkinson series. Used together, the reconstructions extend the evidence available for evaluating historical droughts, pluvials and water-resource vulnerability in the Greater Dublin Area beyond the instrumental period.
SN - 1814-9332
ER -