A comparative analysis of methodological practices used in capture–recapture population size estimation: opioid use disorder prevalence in New York State, 2020
Abstract
Prevalence estimates for opioid use disorder (OUD) are essential for guiding investments in prevention and treatment. Previous estimates have been produced using modeling approaches including capture–recapture (CRC). Empirical evaluations of CRC are needed to assess population size impacts of methodological practices utilized. We linked administrative data sources including New York State (NYS) adults with OUD by indication between January 1 and December 31, 2020 and applied Bayesian CRC methods to evaluate how methodological practices impact OUD prevalence: (1) using sensitive vs specific case definition characteristics to identify OUD, (2) including vs excluding inferred referrals from emergency medical services to healthcare settings, and (3) including vs excluding overdose mortality as a source list. We estimated OUD prevalence overall and by demographic characteristics and treatment coverage with medications for OUD (MOUD). Across methodological scenarios, OUD prevalence estimates ranged from 4.6% to 9.9%. The largest estimate resulted from a model in which the more sensitive OUD case definition was applied, while the smallest resulted from a model using the more specific case definition. An estimated 4.2% of NYS adults had OUD in 2020, with 20% receiving MOUD. Findings demonstrate that CRC methodological decisions can meaningfully influence OUD prevalence estimates, with recommended methodological practices provided.
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BibTeX
@article{bradley2026comparative,
title = {{A comparative analysis of methodological practices used in capture–recapture population size estimation: opioid use disorder prevalence in New York State, 2020}},
author = {Heather Bradley and Trang M Nguyen and Lanxin Li and Ruth King and Vivian Kamanu and Serveh Sharifi Far and Stephanie Mack and Nicole Luisi and Yunshu Li and Yali Meng and Gang Liu and Jiaji Zhang and Ashly E Jordan and Linh Le and Peter L Brodie and Svetlana Jensen and Allan Clear and Tomoko Udo and Vanda Inacio and Eli S Rosenberg},
journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.1093/aje/kwag161},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwag161},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - A comparative analysis of methodological practices used in capture–recapture population size estimation: opioid use disorder prevalence in New York State, 2020
AU - Heather Bradley
AU - Trang M Nguyen
AU - Lanxin Li
AU - Ruth King
AU - Vivian Kamanu
AU - Serveh Sharifi Far
AU - Stephanie Mack
AU - Nicole Luisi
AU - Yunshu Li
AU - Yali Meng
AU - Gang Liu
AU - Jiaji Zhang
AU - Ashly E Jordan
AU - Linh Le
AU - Peter L Brodie
AU - Svetlana Jensen
AU - Allan Clear
AU - Tomoko Udo
AU - Vanda Inacio
AU - Eli S Rosenberg
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/10
JO - American Journal of Epidemiology
DO - 10.1093/aje/kwag161
UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwag161
AB - Prevalence estimates for opioid use disorder (OUD) are essential for guiding investments in prevention and treatment. Previous estimates have been produced using modeling approaches including capture–recapture (CRC). Empirical evaluations of CRC are needed to assess population size impacts of methodological practices utilized. We linked administrative data sources including New York State (NYS) adults with OUD by indication between January 1 and December 31, 2020 and applied Bayesian CRC methods to evaluate how methodological practices impact OUD prevalence: (1) using sensitive vs specific case definition characteristics to identify OUD, (2) including vs excluding inferred referrals from emergency medical services to healthcare settings, and (3) including vs excluding overdose mortality as a source list. We estimated OUD prevalence overall and by demographic characteristics and treatment coverage with medications for OUD (MOUD). Across methodological scenarios, OUD prevalence estimates ranged from 4.6% to 9.9%. The largest estimate resulted from a model in which the more sensitive OUD case definition was applied, while the smallest resulted from a model using the more specific case definition. An estimated 4.2% of NYS adults had OUD in 2020, with 20% receiving MOUD. Findings demonstrate that CRC methodological decisions can meaningfully influence OUD prevalence estimates, with recommended methodological practices provided.
SN - 0002-9262
SN - 1476-6256
ER -