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Peer-reviewedCC BYEnvironment International

Mortality during heatwaves in Spain, 2015–2025: heat metrics, patterns and future risks

  • David García-García1
  • Inmaculada León-Gómez2
  • Lucía Pérez-Marín2
  • Diana Gómez-Barroso3
  1. 1National Centre for Epidemiology, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain; Epidemiology and Public Health Biomedical Network Research Consortium (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Corresponding author at: Pabellón 12. Avenida Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain.
  2. 2National Centre for Epidemiology, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain; Epidemiology and Public Health Biomedical Network Research Consortium (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Doctoral Programme in Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Madrid, Spain
  3. 3National Centre for Epidemiology, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain; Epidemiology and Public Health Biomedical Network Research Consortium (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
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Abstract

The summer of 2025 was exceptionally warm in Spain, ranking among the most extreme heat seasons on record and highlighting the need to better understand its health impacts. We analyzed the relationship between heat and mortality across the 2015–2024 period, using Spain’s high-resolution mortality surveillance and meteorological data. We evaluated multiple heat metrics at different spatial scales to identify those most strongly associated with mortality during heatwaves. We found that event-level heat metrics can explain a large proportion of the variability in heatwave mortality, with extreme temperature and cumulative exposure providing the best performance. In particular, heat-attributable mortality increased by 15 % (95 % CI: 6.7–24.3 %) nationwide and by 24 % (95 % CI: 15.3–33.4 %) at the provincial level for each 1 °C increase in average daily maximum temperature during a heatwave. Over the study period, heat-attributable deaths declined annually by 3.9–5.8 % after adjusting for temperature, yet forecasts substantially overestimated the exceptional heatwaves of 2025. When combined with climate projections, results indicate increased risks in inland regions where warming and vulnerability converge. Spain’s experience offers valuable lessons for other regions facing increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{garciagarcia2026mortality,
  title = {{Mortality during heatwaves in Spain, 2015–2025: heat metrics, patterns and future risks}},
  author = {David García-García and Inmaculada León-Gómez and Lucía Pérez-Marín and Diana Gómez-Barroso},
  journal = {Environment International},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2026.110561},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2026.110561},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Mortality during heatwaves in Spain, 2015–2025: heat metrics, patterns and future risks
AU  - David García-García
AU  - Inmaculada León-Gómez
AU  - Lucía Pérez-Marín
AU  - Diana Gómez-Barroso
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/30
JO  - Environment International
DO  - 10.1016/j.envint.2026.110561
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2026.110561
AB  - The summer of 2025 was exceptionally warm in Spain, ranking among the most extreme heat seasons on record and highlighting the need to better understand its health impacts. We analyzed the relationship between heat and mortality across the 2015–2024 period, using Spain’s high-resolution mortality surveillance and meteorological data. We evaluated multiple heat metrics at different spatial scales to identify those most strongly associated with mortality during heatwaves. We found that event-level heat metrics can explain a large proportion of the variability in heatwave mortality, with extreme temperature and cumulative exposure providing the best performance. In particular, heat-attributable mortality increased by 15 % (95 % CI: 6.7–24.3 %) nationwide and by 24 % (95 % CI: 15.3–33.4 %) at the provincial level for each 1 °C increase in average daily maximum temperature during a heatwave. Over the study period, heat-attributable deaths declined annually by 3.9–5.8 % after adjusting for temperature, yet forecasts substantially overestimated the exceptional heatwaves of 2025. When combined with climate projections, results indicate increased risks in inland regions where warming and vulnerability converge. Spain’s experience offers valuable lessons for other regions facing increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves.
SN  - 0160-4120
ER  -