Life Cycle of Retrogressive Thaw Slumps in a Warmer and Wetter Climate on the Central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
Abstract
Retrogressive thaw slumps, triggered by thawing ice-rich permafrost, have become increasingly widespread across the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, the spatiotemporal evolution of slumps remains poorly understood. Here we compiled a 1964-2024 slump inventory for the Beiluhe region using multi-temporal satellite imagery with deep learning-assisted manual interpretation. By tracking the evolution of hundreds of slumps, we found that 90% stabilized within 12 years, with an average longevity of six years. Among all of the stabilized slumps, only 13.1% reactivated, yet over 75% of these reactivations occurred after 2000. The newly initiated slumps shifted to higher elevations and well-drained areas, reflecting increased frequency of permafrost degradation in previously stable zones. Results suggest that high annual precipitation promotes new RTS initiation, while the permafrost thermal regime exerts a strong control on the magnitude of annual RTS activity (RTSN = e3.198×T+4.923 -1, p<0.05). The spatial and temporal patterns in slump dynamics on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau reveal compelling evidence of accelerated permafrost degradation under a warmer and wetter climate.
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BibTeX
@article{xia2026life,
title = {{Life Cycle of Retrogressive Thaw Slumps in a Warmer and Wetter Climate on the Central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau}},
author = {Zhuoxuan Xia and Zhuoyi Zhao and Lin Liu and Lingcao Huang and Simon Gascoin and Mark J Lara},
journal = {npj Natural Hazards},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.1038/s44304-026-00258-9},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05761314v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Life Cycle of Retrogressive Thaw Slumps in a Warmer and Wetter Climate on the Central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
AU - Zhuoxuan Xia
AU - Zhuoyi Zhao
AU - Lin Liu
AU - Lingcao Huang
AU - Simon Gascoin
AU - Mark J Lara
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/19
JO - npj Natural Hazards
DO - 10.1038/s44304-026-00258-9
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05761314v1
AB - Retrogressive thaw slumps, triggered by thawing ice-rich permafrost, have become increasingly widespread across the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, the spatiotemporal evolution of slumps remains poorly understood. Here we compiled a 1964-2024 slump inventory for the Beiluhe region using multi-temporal satellite imagery with deep learning-assisted manual interpretation. By tracking the evolution of hundreds of slumps, we found that 90% stabilized within 12 years, with an average longevity of six years. Among all of the stabilized slumps, only 13.1% reactivated, yet over 75% of these reactivations occurred after 2000. The newly initiated slumps shifted to higher elevations and well-drained areas, reflecting increased frequency of permafrost degradation in previously stable zones. Results suggest that high annual precipitation promotes new RTS initiation, while the permafrost thermal regime exerts a strong control on the magnitude of annual RTS activity (RTSN = e3.198×T+4.923 -1, p<0.05). The spatial and temporal patterns in slump dynamics on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau reveal compelling evidence of accelerated permafrost degradation under a warmer and wetter climate.
SN - 2948-2100
ER -