A 2020 permafrost distribution map of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
- 1Shanghai Normal University (Shanghai, China)
- 2Nanjing Normal University (Nanjing, China)
Abstract
Permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is undergoing rapid degradation, yet most existing distribution maps reflect long-term historical averages rather than the current thermal state of the ground. This temporal mismatch limits their usefulness for ecological, hydrological, and engineering applications. Here, we present a 1 km resolution permafrost distribution map for the 2020 period using an extended ground surface frost number model (FROSTNUM) driven by satellite-derived freezing/thawing indices. Because no concurrent field survey was available, we applied a space-for-time substitution strategy with Random Forest regression to estimate the empirical soil parameter ( E ) from environmental covariates. The resulting map shows that permafrost covered approximately 1.038 × 10 ⁶ km ² (39.35 % of the QTP), while seasonally frozen ground (SFG) covered 1.466 × 10 ⁶ km ² (55.57 %). Compared with the 2010 baseline, the permafrost area declined by 4.8 × 10 ⁴ km ² (a 1.82 % decrease). Degradation was spatially heterogeneous: the transition from permafrost to SFG was dominant in the central QTP, whereas the southern margin experienced substantial conversion of SFG to non-frozen ground. Validations against 109 independent borehole records yielded an overall accuracy of 0.84 and a Kappa of 0.58, outperforming existing 2020-period maps. This map provides a temporally specific reference for engineering risk assessment, ecological monitoring and the calibration of land surface models in this rapidly changing region.
Versions
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BibTeX
@article{chen20262020,
title = {{A 2020 permafrost distribution map of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau}},
author = {Yuhong Chen and Zhuotong Nan and Wenbiao Tian and Yi Zhao and Shuping Zhao and Dongkai Yang and Guifei Jing and Fujun Niu},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5194/tc-20-5697-2026},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/20/5697/2026/},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - A 2020 permafrost distribution map of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
AU - Yuhong Chen
AU - Zhuotong Nan
AU - Wenbiao Tian
AU - Yi Zhao
AU - Shuping Zhao
AU - Dongkai Yang
AU - Guifei Jing
AU - Fujun Niu
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/06
JO - The Cryosphere
DO - 10.5194/tc-20-5697-2026
UR - https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/20/5697/2026/
AB - Permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is undergoing rapid degradation, yet most existing distribution maps reflect long-term historical averages rather than the current thermal state of the ground. This temporal mismatch limits their usefulness for ecological, hydrological, and engineering applications. Here, we present a 1 km resolution permafrost distribution map for the 2020 period using an extended ground surface frost number model (FROSTNUM) driven by satellite-derived freezing/thawing indices. Because no concurrent field survey was available, we applied a space-for-time substitution strategy with Random Forest regression to estimate the empirical soil parameter ( E ) from environmental covariates. The resulting map shows that permafrost covered approximately 1.038 × 10 ⁶ km ² (39.35 % of the QTP), while seasonally frozen ground (SFG) covered 1.466 × 10 ⁶ km ² (55.57 %). Compared with the 2010 baseline, the permafrost area declined by 4.8 × 10 ⁴ km ² (a 1.82 % decrease). Degradation was spatially heterogeneous: the transition from permafrost to SFG was dominant in the central QTP, whereas the southern margin experienced substantial conversion of SFG to non-frozen ground. Validations against 109 independent borehole records yielded an overall accuracy of 0.84 and a Kappa of 0.58, outperforming existing 2020-period maps. This map provides a temporally specific reference for engineering risk assessment, ecological monitoring and the calibration of land surface models in this rapidly changing region.
SN - 1994-0424
ER -