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Peer-reviewedCC BY-NC-NDInternational Journal of Ophthalmology

Development and external validation of a prediction model for suboptimal orthokeratology control in adolescents

  • Lan-Xi Wang1,2
  • Bei-Yu Xiang1
  • Shi-Han Liu3
  • Li Zhang1
  1. 1Department of Ophthalmology, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400010, China
  2. 2Department of Ophthalmology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical and Pharmaceutical College, Chongqing 400060, China
  3. 3Department of Otorhinolaryngology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China
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Abstract

AIM: To develop and externally validate a risk prediction model for adolescents wearing orthokeratology (OK) lenses to predict the probability of suboptimal control effects. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of myopic children who used OK lenses consistently for at least 18mo between January 2021 and March 2023 were conducted. Various ophthalmic examinations and recorded baseline parameters were performed. A risk prediction model was developed using multifactorial logistic regression analysis, and the model's discrimination and calibration were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier score. RESULTS: The modeling group included 228 eyes (mean age, 10.46±1.99y; 55.7% males), with 120 right eyes (52.6%) and 108 left eyes (47.4%), and the validation group included 100 eyes. Anisometropia was absent in 174 eyes (76.3%) and present in 54 eyes (23.7%). The risk prediction model identified age, anisometropia, and corneal diameter as independent predictors for the control effect of OK lenses. The model showed good discrimination [AUC 0.781, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.721-0.841] and acceptable calibration in derivation (Brier score 0.186) in the validation group. CONCLUSION: The study constructs a risk prediction model to forecast the likelihood that myopic adolescents will not achieve the ideal control effect after wearing OK lenses, offering proactive and effective guidance for frontline clinical practitioners in devising diagnostic and therapeutic strategies.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{wang2026development,
  title = {{Development and external validation of a prediction model for suboptimal orthokeratology control in adolescents}},
  author = {Lan-Xi Wang and Bei-Yu Xiang and Shi-Han Liu and Li Zhang},
  journal = {International Journal of Ophthalmology},
  year = {2026},
  month = nov,
  doi = {10.18240/ijo.2026.11.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.18240/ijo.2026.11.12},
  note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Development and external validation of a prediction model for suboptimal orthokeratology control in adolescents
AU  - Lan-Xi Wang
AU  - Bei-Yu Xiang
AU  - Shi-Han Liu
AU  - Li Zhang
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/11/02
JO  - International Journal of Ophthalmology
DO  - 10.18240/ijo.2026.11.12
UR  - https://doi.org/10.18240/ijo.2026.11.12
AB  - AIM: To develop and externally validate a risk prediction model for adolescents wearing orthokeratology (OK) lenses to predict the probability of suboptimal control effects. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of myopic children who used OK lenses consistently for at least 18mo between January 2021 and March 2023 were conducted. Various ophthalmic examinations and recorded baseline parameters were performed. A risk prediction model was developed using multifactorial logistic regression analysis, and the model's discrimination and calibration were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier score. RESULTS: The modeling group included 228 eyes (mean age, 10.46±1.99y; 55.7% males), with 120 right eyes (52.6%) and 108 left eyes (47.4%), and the validation group included 100 eyes. Anisometropia was absent in 174 eyes (76.3%) and present in 54 eyes (23.7%). The risk prediction model identified age, anisometropia, and corneal diameter as independent predictors for the control effect of OK lenses. The model showed good discrimination [AUC 0.781, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.721-0.841] and acceptable calibration in derivation (Brier score 0.186) in the validation group. CONCLUSION: The study constructs a risk prediction model to forecast the likelihood that myopic adolescents will not achieve the ideal control effect after wearing OK lenses, offering proactive and effective guidance for frontline clinical practitioners in devising diagnostic and therapeutic strategies.
SN  - 2222-3959
SN  - 2227-4898
ER  -