Advancing Tier-1 environmental risk assessment with time-resolved estimates of x% lethal effect concentrations
Abstract
Environmental risk assessment (ERA) uses toxicity estimates, such as x% lethal effect concentrations (LCx), to protect ecosystems from chemical harm. At Tier 1, these estimates are typically derived from static dose-response (DR) models, which only consider final survival measurements and discard the rich temporal information embedded in standard toxicity tests. The General Unified Threshold model of Survival (GUTS) offers a mechanistic alternative, integrating toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic processes in order to model survival probability continuously over time. Although GUTS has been formally endorsed by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) for Tier-2 regulatory assessments of plant protection products, its potential at Tier-1 remains largely unexplored. Here, we demonstrate that the reduced GUTS framework (GUTS-RED) is applicable at Tier-1 and consistently outperforms classical DR approaches.
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BibTeX
@misc{fow2026advancing,
title = {{Advancing Tier-1 environmental risk assessment with time-resolved estimates of x% lethal effect concentrations}},
author = {Anthony Fow and Andreas Focks and Simon Hansul and Nina Cedergreen and Sandrine Charles},
howpublished = {HAL},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05686367v3},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Advancing Tier-1 environmental risk assessment with time-resolved estimates of x% lethal effect concentrations
AU - Anthony Fow
AU - Andreas Focks
AU - Simon Hansul
AU - Nina Cedergreen
AU - Sandrine Charles
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/08
PB - HAL
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05686367v3
AB - Environmental risk assessment (ERA) uses toxicity estimates, such as x% lethal effect concentrations (LCx), to protect ecosystems from chemical harm. At Tier 1, these estimates are typically derived from static dose-response (DR) models, which only consider final survival measurements and discard the rich temporal information embedded in standard toxicity tests. The General Unified Threshold model of Survival (GUTS) offers a mechanistic alternative, integrating toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic processes in order to model survival probability continuously over time. Although GUTS has been formally endorsed by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) for Tier-2 regulatory assessments of plant protection products, its potential at Tier-1 remains largely unexplored. Here, we demonstrate that the reduced GUTS framework (GUTS-RED) is applicable at Tier-1 and consistently outperforms classical DR approaches.
ER -