Adolescent health and not in education, employment or training (NEET) in young adulthood: Evidence from a UK prospective longitudinal study
- 1Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Social Research Institute, UCL, United Kingdom
Abstract
BackgroundHigh rates of young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are a major societal concern in the UK. Whilst other studies have highlighted that adolescent health can predict NEET status in young adulthood, robust and recent longitudinal evidence remains limited.
MethodsThis study used data from the Millennium Cohort Study, a longitudinal study of people born in the UK in the early 2000s, to examine associations between adolescent mental health difficulties and childhood neurodevelopmental conditions, indicators of physical health and health behaviours and NEET status in early adulthood (median age: 23). NEET status was derived from participant reports of economic and education activity. Co-occurrence of exposures was also considered, and population attributable fractions were calculated to account for differences in exposure prevalence.
ResultsAmong 8,135 young people, 12.1% were NEET at age 23. Estimates adjusted for demographic factors indicated that multiple health exposures increased risk of being NEET at age 23, with larger associations observed with most mental health difficulties and childhood neurodevelopmental conditions compared to physical health and health behaviour exposures. For instance, a longstanding mental health condition more than doubled the risk of being NEET (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 2.15, 95% CI = 1.74, 2.65), while autism (aRR = 2.94, 95% CI = 2.31, 3.74) and ADHD (aRR = 2.74, 95% CI = 2.11, 3.56) almost tripled the risk. Reports of greater number of mental health and neurodevelopmental difficulties by adolescence were associated with greater risk of being NEET in young adulthood. Obesity predicted being NEET at age 23 (aRR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.20, 1.83) and obesity accompanied by a mental health or neurodevelopmental difficulty further increased risk (aRR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.47, 2.58).
ConclusionsFindings indicate that health exposures by adolescence, especially mental and neurodevelopmental difficulties, are strongly associated with being NEET in early adulthood.
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BibTeX
@misc{kelly2026adolescent,
title = {{Adolescent health and not in education, employment or training (NEET) in young adulthood: Evidence from a UK prospective longitudinal study}},
author = {D. P. Kelly and J. Wels and P. Patalay},
howpublished = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.64898/2026.08.13.26360381},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.13.26360381v2},
note = {CC BY-ND},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Adolescent health and not in education, employment or training (NEET) in young adulthood: Evidence from a UK prospective longitudinal study
AU - D. P. Kelly
AU - J. Wels
AU - P. Patalay
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/13
PB - medRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.08.13.26360381
UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.13.26360381v2
AB - BackgroundHigh rates of young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are a major societal concern in the UK. Whilst other studies have highlighted that adolescent health can predict NEET status in young adulthood, robust and recent longitudinal evidence remains limited. MethodsThis study used data from the Millennium Cohort Study, a longitudinal study of people born in the UK in the early 2000s, to examine associations between adolescent mental health difficulties and childhood neurodevelopmental conditions, indicators of physical health and health behaviours and NEET status in early adulthood (median age: 23). NEET status was derived from participant reports of economic and education activity. Co-occurrence of exposures was also considered, and population attributable fractions were calculated to account for differences in exposure prevalence. ResultsAmong 8,135 young people, 12.1% were NEET at age 23. Estimates adjusted for demographic factors indicated that multiple health exposures increased risk of being NEET at age 23, with larger associations observed with most mental health difficulties and childhood neurodevelopmental conditions compared to physical health and health behaviour exposures. For instance, a longstanding mental health condition more than doubled the risk of being NEET (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 2.15, 95% CI = 1.74, 2.65), while autism (aRR = 2.94, 95% CI = 2.31, 3.74) and ADHD (aRR = 2.74, 95% CI = 2.11, 3.56) almost tripled the risk. Reports of greater number of mental health and neurodevelopmental difficulties by adolescence were associated with greater risk of being NEET in young adulthood. Obesity predicted being NEET at age 23 (aRR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.20, 1.83) and obesity accompanied by a mental health or neurodevelopmental difficulty further increased risk (aRR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.47, 2.58). ConclusionsFindings indicate that health exposures by adolescence, especially mental and neurodevelopmental difficulties, are strongly associated with being NEET in early adulthood.
ER -