Dairy cattle movement networks govern the spread and persistence of H5N1 B3.13 in the United States
- 1Institute for Ecology and Evolution, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Abstract
Avian influenza virus H5N1 is predominantly found in wild and domestic birds. H5N1 genotype B3.13 was first detected in United States dairy cattle in March 2024 and spread through much of the country during 2024 and 2025, resulting in the largest known H5N1 outbreak in domestic mammals. By analysing viral genomic data jointly with historical cattle movement patterns, we find that live cattle movement is the predominant contributor to H5N1 spatial spread, rather than wild or domestic birds. Using phylogeographic methods we estimate that >40% of interstate viral transmissions occurred before B3.13's first detection and >70% occurred before interstate dairy cattle movement restrictions were implemented in April 2024. After this implementation, interstate transmission slowed but within-state spread persisted, driven by local cattle network density and movement volume. Our epidemic simulations demonstrate that the connectivity of counties within and around the Texas Panhandle - where the earliest cases were documented - predisposed the region to become an outbreak epicentre. Counterfactual simulations indicate that interstate restrictions needed to have begun 2-3 months earlier in order to limit the epizootic substantively, given the extent of cryptic spread before detection. Network-informed interventions outperformed geographically-defined containment, but response speed (rather than intervention strength) was the limiting factor in our epidemic models, underscoring the need for surveillance systems capable of detecting pathogen emergence before widespread dissemination.
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BibTeX
@misc{pekar2026dairy,
title = {{Dairy cattle movement networks govern the spread and persistence of H5N1 B3.13 in the United States}},
author = {J. E. Pekar and Y. Shao and A. Crespo-Bellido and P. Sambaturu and G. Baele and J. O. Wertheim and P. Gangavarapu and K. Gangavarapu and G. Dudas and T. P. Peacock and A. Maksiaev and T. Rajamand and M. W. Sanderson and J. Bahl and E. Plunkett and A. M. Dokter and J. Ochoa and K. G. Andersen and O. Pybus and M. Worobey and M. I. Nelson and M. U. G. Kraemer and M. A. Suchard and A. Rambaut and P. Lemey},
howpublished = {bioRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.64898/2026.10.28.762465},
url = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.28.762465v1},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Dairy cattle movement networks govern the spread and persistence of H5N1 B3.13 in the United States
AU - J. E. Pekar
AU - Y. Shao
AU - A. Crespo-Bellido
AU - P. Sambaturu
AU - G. Baele
AU - J. O. Wertheim
AU - P. Gangavarapu
AU - K. Gangavarapu
AU - G. Dudas
AU - T. P. Peacock
AU - A. Maksiaev
AU - T. Rajamand
AU - M. W. Sanderson
AU - J. Bahl
AU - E. Plunkett
AU - A. M. Dokter
AU - J. Ochoa
AU - K. G. Andersen
AU - O. Pybus
AU - M. Worobey
AU - M. I. Nelson
AU - M. U. G. Kraemer
AU - M. A. Suchard
AU - A. Rambaut
AU - P. Lemey
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/28
PB - bioRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.10.28.762465
UR - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.28.762465v1
AB - Avian influenza virus H5N1 is predominantly found in wild and domestic birds. H5N1 genotype B3.13 was first detected in United States dairy cattle in March 2024 and spread through much of the country during 2024 and 2025, resulting in the largest known H5N1 outbreak in domestic mammals. By analysing viral genomic data jointly with historical cattle movement patterns, we find that live cattle movement is the predominant contributor to H5N1 spatial spread, rather than wild or domestic birds. Using phylogeographic methods we estimate that >40% of interstate viral transmissions occurred before B3.13's first detection and >70% occurred before interstate dairy cattle movement restrictions were implemented in April 2024. After this implementation, interstate transmission slowed but within-state spread persisted, driven by local cattle network density and movement volume. Our epidemic simulations demonstrate that the connectivity of counties within and around the Texas Panhandle - where the earliest cases were documented - predisposed the region to become an outbreak epicentre. Counterfactual simulations indicate that interstate restrictions needed to have begun 2-3 months earlier in order to limit the epizootic substantively, given the extent of cryptic spread before detection. Network-informed interventions outperformed geographically-defined containment, but response speed (rather than intervention strength) was the limiting factor in our epidemic models, underscoring the need for surveillance systems capable of detecting pathogen emergence before widespread dissemination.
ER -