Thermophysical characterization of the potentially hazardous near-Earth object 2024 YR4
Abstract
The asteroid 2024 YR4 is a potentially hazardous Apollo-type near-Earth object. Its highly eccentric orbit produces close Earth-Moon encounters roughly every 4 years. A collection of light curves, including JWST-NIRCam data, allowed us to constrain the rotation period, spin pole, and convex shape solutions for the object. We analyzed two sets of JWST-MIRI observations obtained in three filters on 26 March 2025. The extracted photometry reveals rotationally driven thermal flux variations. The combination of a spin-shape model from light-curve inversion and the absolutely calibrated 3-band MIR light curves is well reproduced by a convex spin-shape solution with a spin pole at (l,b) = (232, -11), a sidereal period of 19.4633 min, and axis ratios of a/b ~1.28 and b/c ~1.45. The corresponding equivalent-volume diameter is 60.8 +1.8/-3.6 m (pV= 0.11 +0.05/-0.03, assuming HV = 24.14+/-0.25 mag). A high thermal inertia and low surface roughness are required to explain the observed MIRI data. The near-Earth asteroid thermal model has limited reliability for this object, requiring an extreme beaming parameter >3, whereas the fast-rotating model and a full thermophysical model provide consistent and reliable estimates of the size and albedo. The combination of high eccentricity and high thermal inertia implies seasonal skin depths of up to ~3 m and radiative timescales of weeks to months. Although seasonal heating is negligible for the March 2025 observations because of the near-equator-on viewing geometry, the seasonal Yarkovsky drift is expected to be dominant over the diurnal component and might become measurable during future encounters. Although JWST astrometry from February 2026 rules out any possible impact on the Earth or the Moon for at least 100 years, the spin, shape, and radiometric constraints presented here provide an important benchmark for future potentially hazardous objects.
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BibTeX
@misc{muller2026thermophysical,
title = {{Thermophysical characterization of the potentially hazardous near-Earth object 2024 YR4}},
author = {T. G. Müller and E. M. MacLennan and A. Y. Burdanov and B. J. Holler and A. S. Rivkin and J. de Wit and P. Pravec and M. Micheli and K. Muinonen and D. Farnocchia},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.15756},
eprint = {2609.15756},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.15756},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Thermophysical characterization of the potentially hazardous near-Earth object 2024 YR4
AU - T. G. Müller
AU - E. M. MacLennan
AU - A. Y. Burdanov
AU - B. J. Holler
AU - A. S. Rivkin
AU - J. de Wit
AU - P. Pravec
AU - M. Micheli
AU - K. Muinonen
AU - D. Farnocchia
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/14
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.15756
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.15756
AB - The asteroid 2024 YR4 is a potentially hazardous Apollo-type near-Earth object. Its highly eccentric orbit produces close Earth-Moon encounters roughly every 4 years. A collection of light curves, including JWST-NIRCam data, allowed us to constrain the rotation period, spin pole, and convex shape solutions for the object. We analyzed two sets of JWST-MIRI observations obtained in three filters on 26 March 2025. The extracted photometry reveals rotationally driven thermal flux variations. The combination of a spin-shape model from light-curve inversion and the absolutely calibrated 3-band MIR light curves is well reproduced by a convex spin-shape solution with a spin pole at (l,b) = (232, -11), a sidereal period of 19.4633 min, and axis ratios of a/b ~1.28 and b/c ~1.45. The corresponding equivalent-volume diameter is 60.8 +1.8/-3.6 m (pV= 0.11 +0.05/-0.03, assuming HV = 24.14+/-0.25 mag). A high thermal inertia and low surface roughness are required to explain the observed MIRI data. The near-Earth asteroid thermal model has limited reliability for this object, requiring an extreme beaming parameter >3, whereas the fast-rotating model and a full thermophysical model provide consistent and reliable estimates of the size and albedo. The combination of high eccentricity and high thermal inertia implies seasonal skin depths of up to ~3 m and radiative timescales of weeks to months. Although seasonal heating is negligible for the March 2025 observations because of the near-equator-on viewing geometry, the seasonal Yarkovsky drift is expected to be dominant over the diurnal component and might become measurable during future encounters. Although JWST astrometry from February 2026 rules out any possible impact on the Earth or the Moon for at least 100 years, the spin, shape, and radiometric constraints presented here provide an important benchmark for future potentially hazardous objects.
ER -