From risk to flourishing: Seeds for responding to a complex world
Abstract
Complex risk arises when interacting hazards, infrastructures, ecological systems, institutions, and human behaviors produce nonlinear impacts that cannot be inferred from any component in isolation. We call the study of these dynamics complex risk science. Flourishing is the actualization of all beings toward their good--individually and collectively--answering the question of `how do we live well with and for each other?'. In science as in society, the tendency to reduce, segregate, specialize, and settle has precluded embracing the concept of flourishing as a guiding principle. We describe how complex risk science reframes risk science research so that it can promote the flourishing of socio-ecological-technological systems, and explore how its practice may point society toward a more flourishing future. Our exploration mirrors the unsettled and searching nature of flourishing: examine ideologies traditionally believed to be rigidly in opposition and consider what emerges in the space(s) and conversation between them. We call this a dialectical approach: not a means of resolving contradiction, but a practice of sustaining it, so that systems, and our understanding of them, remain capable of reframing as conditions change. Within this dialectical paradigm, we revisit longstanding tensions in risk science: physical|social, determinism|uncertainty, and contextuality|generality. Examining the conversation among these tensions reveals five seeds that are dispositions for practicing complex risk science: interdependence, responsivity, participation, pluralism, and ongoingness. They can support any scientific endeavor to embrace complexity and promote flourishing. Practicing these seeds at scale will depend on institutional reform: creating collectives toward complex risk science, supporting them with skillfully governed commons, and centering care in our research and evaluation.
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BibTeX
@misc{mcgranaghan2026from,
title = {{From risk to flourishing: Seeds for responding to a complex world}},
author = {Ryan M. McGranaghan and Elisabeth H. Krueger and Alexandre Dunant and Guillaume Falmagne and Lynee L. Turek-Hankins and Sara M. Constantino and Raissa D'Souza and Elke U. Weber and Graydon W. Manzke},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2607.19685},
eprint = {2607.19685},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.19685},
note = {CC BY-NC-SA 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - From risk to flourishing: Seeds for responding to a complex world
AU - Ryan M. McGranaghan
AU - Elisabeth H. Krueger
AU - Alexandre Dunant
AU - Guillaume Falmagne
AU - Lynee L. Turek-Hankins
AU - Sara M. Constantino
AU - Raissa D'Souza
AU - Elke U. Weber
AU - Graydon W. Manzke
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/13
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2607.19685
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.19685
AB - Complex risk arises when interacting hazards, infrastructures, ecological systems, institutions, and human behaviors produce nonlinear impacts that cannot be inferred from any component in isolation. We call the study of these dynamics complex risk science. Flourishing is the actualization of all beings toward their good--individually and collectively--answering the question of `how do we live well with and for each other?'. In science as in society, the tendency to reduce, segregate, specialize, and settle has precluded embracing the concept of flourishing as a guiding principle. We describe how complex risk science reframes risk science research so that it can promote the flourishing of socio-ecological-technological systems, and explore how its practice may point society toward a more flourishing future. Our exploration mirrors the unsettled and searching nature of flourishing: examine ideologies traditionally believed to be rigidly in opposition and consider what emerges in the space(s) and conversation between them. We call this a dialectical approach: not a means of resolving contradiction, but a practice of sustaining it, so that systems, and our understanding of them, remain capable of reframing as conditions change. Within this dialectical paradigm, we revisit longstanding tensions in risk science: physical|social, determinism|uncertainty, and contextuality|generality. Examining the conversation among these tensions reveals five seeds that are dispositions for practicing complex risk science: interdependence, responsivity, participation, pluralism, and ongoingness. They can support any scientific endeavor to embrace complexity and promote flourishing. Practicing these seeds at scale will depend on institutional reform: creating collectives toward complex risk science, supporting them with skillfully governed commons, and centering care in our research and evaluation.
ER -