Low Latency Global Carbon Budget Reveals Late 2024 Carbon Losses and Contrasting Early 2025 Land Sink Recovery Signals
Abstract
The 2023/24 El Niño strongly reduced land carbon uptake, but the persistence of this anomaly after surface cooling remains uncertain. Here we quantify the July 2024-June 2025 global CO 2 budget using low-latency fossil emission estimates, three DGVMs, machine learning ocean flux emulators and OCO-2-constrained atmospheric inversions. The atmospheric CO 2 growth rate was 2.62 ± 0.08 ppm yr -1 , 6.5% above the 2013-2022 July-to-June mean. DGVMs estimate that the net land sink was 1.32 ± 0.19 GtC yr -1 weaker than the 2015-2022 July-to-June mean, whereas combining bottom-up and top-down constraints gives a smaller deficit of 0.49 GtC yr -1 . The annual anomaly is dominated by late-2024 land carbon losses. Early-2025 recovery, however, is methoddependent: DGVMs retain a weak annual land-sink deficit, while all inversions indicate fluxes close to the reference mean and a stronger-than-normal northern sink in late spring 2025. Ocean uptake shows no global weakening. A statistical decomposition links global land flux variability mainly to temperature, with terrestrial water storage contributing more strongly at regional scales. These results identify Northern Hemisphere land-sink recovery as a central uncertainty in low-latency carbon-budget assessments.
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BibTeX
@article{ke2026latency,
title = {{Low Latency Global Carbon Budget Reveals Late 2024 Carbon Losses and Contrasting Early 2025 Land Sink Recovery Signals}},
author = {Piyu Ke and Philippe Ciais and Yitong Yao and Stephen Sitch and Wei Li and Xiaomeng Du and Xiaofan Gui and Ben Poulter and Thomas Colligan and Auke M van der Woude and Joram Hooghiem and Wouter Peters and Zhu Liu and Zhu Deng and Zhe Jin and Xiangjun Tian and Yilong Wang and Junjie Liu and Sudhanshu Pandey and Chris O'Dell and Jiang Bian and John Miller and Xin Lan and Jefferson Goncalves de Souza and Michael O'Sullivan and Pierre Friedlingstein and Julien Alléon and Yi Xi and Daniel S Goll and Lei Zhu and Guido R van der Werf and Shilong Piao and Frédéric Chevallier},
journal = {Advanced Science},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1002/advs.77369},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05758383v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Low Latency Global Carbon Budget Reveals Late 2024 Carbon Losses and Contrasting Early 2025 Land Sink Recovery Signals
AU - Piyu Ke
AU - Philippe Ciais
AU - Yitong Yao
AU - Stephen Sitch
AU - Wei Li
AU - Xiaomeng Du
AU - Xiaofan Gui
AU - Ben Poulter
AU - Thomas Colligan
AU - Auke M van der Woude
AU - Joram Hooghiem
AU - Wouter Peters
AU - Zhu Liu
AU - Zhu Deng
AU - Zhe Jin
AU - Xiangjun Tian
AU - Yilong Wang
AU - Junjie Liu
AU - Sudhanshu Pandey
AU - Chris O'Dell
AU - Jiang Bian
AU - John Miller
AU - Xin Lan
AU - Jefferson Goncalves de Souza
AU - Michael O'Sullivan
AU - Pierre Friedlingstein
AU - Julien Alléon
AU - Yi Xi
AU - Daniel S Goll
AU - Lei Zhu
AU - Guido R van der Werf
AU - Shilong Piao
AU - Frédéric Chevallier
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/01
JO - Advanced Science
DO - 10.1002/advs.77369
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05758383v1
AB - The 2023/24 El Niño strongly reduced land carbon uptake, but the persistence of this anomaly after surface cooling remains uncertain. Here we quantify the July 2024-June 2025 global CO 2 budget using low-latency fossil emission estimates, three DGVMs, machine learning ocean flux emulators and OCO-2-constrained atmospheric inversions. The atmospheric CO 2 growth rate was 2.62 ± 0.08 ppm yr -1 , 6.5% above the 2013-2022 July-to-June mean. DGVMs estimate that the net land sink was 1.32 ± 0.19 GtC yr -1 weaker than the 2015-2022 July-to-June mean, whereas combining bottom-up and top-down constraints gives a smaller deficit of 0.49 GtC yr -1 . The annual anomaly is dominated by late-2024 land carbon losses. Early-2025 recovery, however, is methoddependent: DGVMs retain a weak annual land-sink deficit, while all inversions indicate fluxes close to the reference mean and a stronger-than-normal northern sink in late spring 2025. Ocean uptake shows no global weakening. A statistical decomposition links global land flux variability mainly to temperature, with terrestrial water storage contributing more strongly at regional scales. These results identify Northern Hemisphere land-sink recovery as a central uncertainty in low-latency carbon-budget assessments.
SN - 2198-3844
ER -