Low latency global carbon budget reveals strong land sink recovery in 2025

@misc{ciais2026latency,
  title = {{Low latency global carbon budget reveals strong land sink recovery in 2025}},
  author = {Philippe Ciais and Piyu Ke and Xiangjun Tian and Stephen Sitch and Wei Li and Xiaomeng Du and Xiaofan Gui and Ben Poulter and Thomas Colligan and Auke M. van der Woude and Anne-Wil van den Berg and Wouter Peters and Zhu Liu and Zhu Deng and Zhe Jin and Yilong Wang and Junjie Liu and Sudhanshu Pandey and Chris O'Dell and Jiang Bian and John Miller and Xin Lan and Jefferson Goncalves De Souza and Michael O'Sullivan and Pierre Friedlingstein and Youngryel Ryu and Helin Zhang and Julien Alléon and Yi Xi and Daniel S. Goll and Lei Zhu and Guido R. van der Werf and Yitong Yao and Shilong Piao and Frédéric Chevallier},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.34226},
  eprint = {2609.34226},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.34226},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

TY  - UNPB
TI  - Low latency global carbon budget reveals strong land sink recovery in 2025
AU  - Philippe Ciais
AU  - Piyu Ke
AU  - Xiangjun Tian
AU  - Stephen Sitch
AU  - Wei Li
AU  - Xiaomeng Du
AU  - Xiaofan Gui
AU  - Ben Poulter
AU  - Thomas Colligan
AU  - Auke M. van der Woude
AU  - Anne-Wil van den Berg
AU  - Wouter Peters
AU  - Zhu Liu
AU  - Zhu Deng
AU  - Zhe Jin
AU  - Yilong Wang
AU  - Junjie Liu
AU  - Sudhanshu Pandey
AU  - Chris O'Dell
AU  - Jiang Bian
AU  - John Miller
AU  - Xin Lan
AU  - Jefferson Goncalves De Souza
AU  - Michael O'Sullivan
AU  - Pierre Friedlingstein
AU  - Youngryel Ryu
AU  - Helin Zhang
AU  - Julien Alléon
AU  - Yi Xi
AU  - Daniel S. Goll
AU  - Lei Zhu
AU  - Guido R. van der Werf
AU  - Yitong Yao
AU  - Shilong Piao
AU  - Frédéric Chevallier
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/28
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.34226
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.34226
AB  - The atmospheric CO2 growth rate fell sharply in 2025, from a record 3.76 ± 0.09 ppm yr-1 in 2024 to 2.06 ± 0.09 ppm yr-1 (NOAA marine boundary layer observations), below the 2015-2022 mean of 2.47 ppm yr-1, even as fossil CO2 emissions rose by 0.7% to 10.38 GtC yr-1. Here we present a low-latency global and regional carbon budget for 2025, combining three dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and ocean model emulators with four atmospheric inversions constrained by OCO-2 satellite retrievals. The global net land sink reached 2.36 ± 0.16 GtC yr-1 in 2025 (DGVMs: 2.04 ± 0.24; inversions: 2.68 ± 0.20 GtC yr-1), strengthening by 2.81 ± 0.31 GtC yr-1 from 2024 and exceeding the 2015-2022 mean by 0.71 ± 0.13 GtC yr-1. Ocean uptake (3.11 ± 0.36 GtC yr-1) remained similar to 2024, making the land sink rebound the dominant driver of the slowdown in CO2 growth. Tropical lands shifted from net sources in 2024 to net sinks in 2025, with enhanced uptake across much of Africa and northern Eurasia, and land flux anomalies covaried with GRACE terrestrial water storage. Where the sink had weakened substantially in 2023-2024, about 80% of the area showed some recovery, with overall recovery of 87.3% (DGVMs) to 99.5% (inversions). Recovery exceeded 100% in the tropics but remained incomplete in the northern extratropics, indicating a strong but spatially uneven rebound of the land carbon sink.
ER  -