Remote impacts of ice-sheet meltwater forcing on West African cereal yields and domestic cereal production per capita
Abstract
West Africa is highly exposed to climate variability, and rain-fed cereal production remains particularly sensitive to changes in monsoon rainfall, temperature, and radiation. Beyond greenhousegas-driven warming, freshwater input from polar ice-sheet melting may alter large-scale oceanatmosphere circulation and remotely affect West African hydroclimate. Here, we assess how idealized freshwater forcing from the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets (WAIS) modifies climate conditions relevant to cereal production in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal. We use bias-corrected simulations from the IPSL-CM5A-LR model under RCP8.5, including two freshwater hosing experiments representing Greenland Ice Sheet melt and WAIS melt. Daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation fields are used to force the SARRA-O crop model for maize, millet, and sorghum over the mid-21st century period (2041-2070). Simulated yields are combined with national cultivated areas and United Nations population projections to estimate domestic cereal production per capita, used here as a partial proxy for pressure on domestic cereal-supply capacity. The Greenland meltwater experiment strongly reduces monsoon rainfall over the study region and leads to substantial cereal-yield declines, with production losses reaching up to 50% for maize in several countries. In contrast, the West Antarctic meltwater experiment increases rainfall in parts of West Africa and partly offsets yield losses relative to the RCP8.5 baseline. However, once projected population growth is included, domestic cereal production per capita declines sharply across all countries and scenarios, indicating that demographic growth remains a dominant driver of reduced per capita production. These results show that remote ice-sheet meltwater forcing can substantially modify West African cereal-production outcomes, with contrasting effects depending on the hemisphere of freshwater input. While the analysis does not provide a complete assessment of food security, it highlights a potential additional climate-driven pressure on domestic cerealsupply capacity in a region already facing strong demographic and climatic constraints.
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BibTeX
@article{defrance2026remote,
title = {{Remote impacts of ice-sheet meltwater forcing on West African cereal yields and domestic cereal production per capita}},
author = {Dimitri Defrance and Sylvie Charbit and Benjamin Sultan and Thomas Noël},
journal = {Environmental Research: Climate},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1088/2752-5295/ae9e62},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05820853v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Remote impacts of ice-sheet meltwater forcing on West African cereal yields and domestic cereal production per capita
AU - Dimitri Defrance
AU - Sylvie Charbit
AU - Benjamin Sultan
AU - Thomas Noël
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/24
JO - Environmental Research: Climate
DO - 10.1088/2752-5295/ae9e62
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05820853v1
AB - West Africa is highly exposed to climate variability, and rain-fed cereal production remains particularly sensitive to changes in monsoon rainfall, temperature, and radiation. Beyond greenhousegas-driven warming, freshwater input from polar ice-sheet melting may alter large-scale oceanatmosphere circulation and remotely affect West African hydroclimate. Here, we assess how idealized freshwater forcing from the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets (WAIS) modifies climate conditions relevant to cereal production in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal. We use bias-corrected simulations from the IPSL-CM5A-LR model under RCP8.5, including two freshwater hosing experiments representing Greenland Ice Sheet melt and WAIS melt. Daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation fields are used to force the SARRA-O crop model for maize, millet, and sorghum over the mid-21st century period (2041-2070). Simulated yields are combined with national cultivated areas and United Nations population projections to estimate domestic cereal production per capita, used here as a partial proxy for pressure on domestic cereal-supply capacity. The Greenland meltwater experiment strongly reduces monsoon rainfall over the study region and leads to substantial cereal-yield declines, with production losses reaching up to 50% for maize in several countries. In contrast, the West Antarctic meltwater experiment increases rainfall in parts of West Africa and partly offsets yield losses relative to the RCP8.5 baseline. However, once projected population growth is included, domestic cereal production per capita declines sharply across all countries and scenarios, indicating that demographic growth remains a dominant driver of reduced per capita production. These results show that remote ice-sheet meltwater forcing can substantially modify West African cereal-production outcomes, with contrasting effects depending on the hemisphere of freshwater input. While the analysis does not provide a complete assessment of food security, it highlights a potential additional climate-driven pressure on domestic cerealsupply capacity in a region already facing strong demographic and climatic constraints.
SN - 2752-5295
ER -