A 45-year high-resolution wave hindcast for the Fijian archipelago: mean climate, spectral characteristics, and long-term trends
Abstract
Fiji’s coastal communities are highly exposed to ocean waves that drive erosion, inundation and shoreline change. Yet the Fijian archipelago lacks a comprehensive, wave-climate assessment at a resolution that represents island effects appropriately. To address this gap, we present a 45-year (1979–2023) wave hindcast from the unstructured SWAN model, refined to 500 m near the coast, forced by ERA5 reanalysis, and validated against satellite altimetry and in situ wave buoys. The hindcast resolves a distinct south-to-north energy gradient, persistent wave corridors, and island shadowing that govern coastal wave exposure across the archipelago. Spectral analysis identifies three dominant wave sources, namely, the extratropical storms in both hemispheres, and the Southeast Trade Winds. On interannual timescales, the Antarctic Ocean Index (AAO) is the dominant driver of long-period swell variability to the south, while the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) modulates wave energy to the north. Over 45 years, the offshore wave height (Hs) increase is significant at + 2.4 ± 2.8 cm, as is the peak period (Tp, + 0.2 ± 0.13 s). Together, these findings provide a critical resource for coastal planning, wave energy assessments, and climate adaptation for vulnerable Fijian coastal communities.
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BibTeX
@article{muna202645year,
title = {{A 45-year high-resolution wave hindcast for the Fijian archipelago: mean climate, spectral characteristics, and long-term trends}},
author = {Lency Royce Muna and Antonio Espejo and Moritz Wandres and Alexandre Ganachaud and Awnesh Singh and Pascal Dumas and Hervé Damlamian},
journal = {Ocean Dynamics},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.1007/s10236-026-01849-w},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05741652v1},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - A 45-year high-resolution wave hindcast for the Fijian archipelago: mean climate, spectral characteristics, and long-term trends
AU - Lency Royce Muna
AU - Antonio Espejo
AU - Moritz Wandres
AU - Alexandre Ganachaud
AU - Awnesh Singh
AU - Pascal Dumas
AU - Hervé Damlamian
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/27
JO - Ocean Dynamics
DO - 10.1007/s10236-026-01849-w
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05741652v1
AB - Fiji’s coastal communities are highly exposed to ocean waves that drive erosion, inundation and shoreline change. Yet the Fijian archipelago lacks a comprehensive, wave-climate assessment at a resolution that represents island effects appropriately. To address this gap, we present a 45-year (1979–2023) wave hindcast from the unstructured SWAN model, refined to 500 m near the coast, forced by ERA5 reanalysis, and validated against satellite altimetry and in situ wave buoys. The hindcast resolves a distinct south-to-north energy gradient, persistent wave corridors, and island shadowing that govern coastal wave exposure across the archipelago. Spectral analysis identifies three dominant wave sources, namely, the extratropical storms in both hemispheres, and the Southeast Trade Winds. On interannual timescales, the Antarctic Ocean Index (AAO) is the dominant driver of long-period swell variability to the south, while the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) modulates wave energy to the north. Over 45 years, the offshore wave height (Hs) increase is significant at + 2.4 ± 2.8 cm, as is the peak period (Tp, + 0.2 ± 0.13 s). Together, these findings provide a critical resource for coastal planning, wave energy assessments, and climate adaptation for vulnerable Fijian coastal communities.
SN - 1616-7341
SN - 1616-7228
ER -