Does higher-resolution climate forcing improve impact model performance?

@article{malle2026does,
  title = {{Does higher-resolution climate forcing improve impact model performance?}},
  author = {Johanna T Malle and Christopher P O Reyer and Yael Amitai and Andrey L D Augustynczik and Yaron Be’eri-Shlevin and Elad Ben-Zur and Peter Burek and Tarunsinh Chaudhari and Jinfeng Chang and Alessio Collalti and Daniela Dalmonech and Shouro Dasgupta and Iulii Didovets and Marc Djahangard and Laura Dobor and Louis François and Simon N Gosling and Fred F Hattermann and Shaochun Huang and Heike Lischke and Thomas Lorimer and Katarína Merganičová and Francesco Minunno and Mats Nieberg and Elizabeth J Z Robinson and Martin Schmid and Mikhail Smilovic and Ritika Srinet and Elia Vangi and Xue Yang and Rasoul Yousefpour and Ana I Ayala and Daniel Mercado-Bettin and Dánnell Quesada-Chacón and Dirk N Karger},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aeb279},
  url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb279},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

TY  - JOUR
TI  - Does higher-resolution climate forcing improve impact model performance?
AU  - Johanna T Malle
AU  - Christopher P O Reyer
AU  - Yael Amitai
AU  - Andrey L D Augustynczik
AU  - Yaron Be’eri-Shlevin
AU  - Elad Ben-Zur
AU  - Peter Burek
AU  - Tarunsinh Chaudhari
AU  - Jinfeng Chang
AU  - Alessio Collalti
AU  - Daniela Dalmonech
AU  - Shouro Dasgupta
AU  - Iulii Didovets
AU  - Marc Djahangard
AU  - Laura Dobor
AU  - Louis François
AU  - Simon N Gosling
AU  - Fred F Hattermann
AU  - Shaochun Huang
AU  - Heike Lischke
AU  - Thomas Lorimer
AU  - Katarína Merganičová
AU  - Francesco Minunno
AU  - Mats Nieberg
AU  - Elizabeth J Z Robinson
AU  - Martin Schmid
AU  - Mikhail Smilovic
AU  - Ritika Srinet
AU  - Elia Vangi
AU  - Xue Yang
AU  - Rasoul Yousefpour
AU  - Ana I Ayala
AU  - Daniel Mercado-Bettin
AU  - Dánnell Quesada-Chacón
AU  - Dirk N Karger
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/27
JO  - Environmental Research Letters
DO  - 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb279
UR  - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb279
AB  - Climate-impact assessments increasingly use high-resolution climate forcing, often assuming that finer spatial detail improves impact projections. Yet this assumption has rarely been tested systematically across impact sectors, regions, and forcing variables. Here we use coordinated simulations from 16 impact models participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project to evaluate how increasing forcing resolution from 60 km to 10 km, 3 km, and 1 km affects both climate-input accuracy and impact-model performance. We find that most gains occur when moving from 60 km to 10 km resolution. Further refinement to 3 km and 1 km yields smaller and less consistent benefits, and in some cases degrades performance. Improvements are strongest for temperature-sensitive models and in topographically complex regions, where finer forcing better captures spatial gradients. By contrast, precipitation-driven models and low-relief regions show weaker and less systematic gains. These results challenge the expectation that ever-finer climate forcing necessarily improves impact modelling. Instead, the value of resolution depends on the forcing variable, sector, region, and process representation of the impact model. Benchmarking resolution choices against impact-model performance, rather than climate-input accuracy alone, is therefore essential for designing efficient and decision-relevant climate-impact assessments.
SN  - 1748-9326
ER  -