Early warning signals of sudden changes in daily step count: an intensive longitudinal study of over 20,000 adults
Abstract
Health-protecting behaviors such as physical activity are crucial for health, yet positive behavior changes are often accompanied by setbacks and relapses. Previous research suggests that critical fluctuations in behavioral time series might foreshadow relapses as early warning signals. This study examines the association between critical fluctuations, quantified as dynamic complexity (DC), and impending sudden changes in physical activity, here walking behavior. We analyzed step count data from 21,425 participants during enrollment in a digital physical activity intervention, covering a total of 5,474,501 person-days. Step counts were recorded via smartphones or wearables. Generalized multilevel models revealed a positive association between DC and impending sudden losses in walking (odds ratios [OR] 1.93–1.32). In contrast, the association between DC and impending sudden gains was weaker and less consistent (OR = 1.10–0.89). These findings provide evidence for the role of critical fluctuations as early warning signals for sudden losses in walking behavior and highlight their potential in designing timely and targeted interventions, notably just-in-time adaptive interventions.
Related
- Speciation, extinction and explosions induced by sudden environmental changes
- From population trends to biodiversity changes: synthesizing multi-species signals of collapse
- Mismatch Responses to Prosodic Changes in Children With Developmental Language Disorder: A Longitudinal Approach
- Diffusible signals from Azospirillum brasilense promote rice growth and induce distinct gene expression changes in plant roots
- Longitudinal changes in control energy of brain networks in older adults at familial risk for Alzheimers disease
BibTeX
@article{baretta2026early,
title = {{Early warning signals of sudden changes in daily step count: an intensive longitudinal study of over 20,000 adults}},
author = {Dario Baretta and Alexandre Mazéas and Aïna Chalabaev and Jennifer Inauen and Guillaume Chevance},
journal = {npj Exercise Medicine and Health},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.1038/s44437-026-00003-4},
url = {https://ehesp.hal.science/hal-05738597v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Early warning signals of sudden changes in daily step count: an intensive longitudinal study of over 20,000 adults
AU - Dario Baretta
AU - Alexandre Mazéas
AU - Aïna Chalabaev
AU - Jennifer Inauen
AU - Guillaume Chevance
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/25
JO - npj Exercise Medicine and Health
DO - 10.1038/s44437-026-00003-4
UR - https://ehesp.hal.science/hal-05738597v1
AB - Health-protecting behaviors such as physical activity are crucial for health, yet positive behavior changes are often accompanied by setbacks and relapses. Previous research suggests that critical fluctuations in behavioral time series might foreshadow relapses as early warning signals. This study examines the association between critical fluctuations, quantified as dynamic complexity (DC), and impending sudden changes in physical activity, here walking behavior. We analyzed step count data from 21,425 participants during enrollment in a digital physical activity intervention, covering a total of 5,474,501 person-days. Step counts were recorded via smartphones or wearables. Generalized multilevel models revealed a positive association between DC and impending sudden losses in walking (odds ratios [OR] 1.93–1.32). In contrast, the association between DC and impending sudden gains was weaker and less consistent (OR = 1.10–0.89). These findings provide evidence for the role of critical fluctuations as early warning signals for sudden losses in walking behavior and highlight their potential in designing timely and targeted interventions, notably just-in-time adaptive interventions.
SN - 3059-331X
ER -