Changes in the profile of adults diagnosed as autistic since 2010: population-based studies in the UK and Sweden
11 affiliations
- 1MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- 2Avon and Wiltshire Mental Health Partnership NHS Trust, Bath, UK
- 3Centre for Academic Mental Health, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- 4NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, Bristol NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UK
- 5Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
- 6NIHR Bristol Clinical Research Facility, Bristol NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UK
- 7Centre for Neuropsychiatric Genetics and Genomics, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
- 8A.J. Drexel Autism Institute, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- 9Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Drexel University Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- 10Centre for Epidemiology and Community Medicine, Region Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden
- 11NIHR Applied Health Collaboration South West, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Abstract
Background: Autism diagnoses have risen consistently over time. Characterising the backgrounds of adults being diagnosed with autism can help to clarify why.
Objective: To understand if sociodemographic and neuropsychiatric characteristics of adults diagnosed with autism in the UK and Sweden have changed since 2010.
Methods: Using UK primary care records from 2010 to 2023 and Swedish population-wide register linkages from 2010 to 2021, we calculated annual age-standardised incidence and prevalence of adult autism diagnoses within different sociodemographic groups. We also calculated annual age-standardised proportion of adults with prior records of other neuropsychiatric conditions or medications by autism diagnosis status.
Findings: In the UK, 24 537 039 adults contributed to the study, including 141 119 with an autism diagnosis. In Sweden, 9 096 874 adults contributed, including 100 817 with an autism diagnosis. Incident (first recorded) adult autism diagnoses were consistently higher in Sweden than the UK; however, incidence increased rapidly in the UK after 2020. Incident diagnoses increased fastest for 16–20 year-olds and females in both nations, as well as people in white ethnic groups in the UK and people with Swedish-born parents in Sweden. Over time, there has been a consistent decline in the proportion of autistic adults with a prior diagnosis of epilepsy, psychosis and intellectual disability and an increase in the proportion with a prior diagnosis of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anxiety, depression and several other mental illnesses. For example, in the UK between 2010 and 2023, a history of epilepsy among adults with newly recorded autism decreased from 10% (95% CI 7.6% to 13%) to 4% (95% CI 3.6% to 4.5%), while a history of anxiety increased from 28.7% (95% CI 24.4% to 33.6%) to 58.3% (95% CI 56.6% to 60.1%). Trends were broadly consistent between females and males.
Conclusions: The characteristics of individuals diagnosed as autistic have changed dramatically since 2010 in both the UK and Sweden.
Clinical implications: Service design and clinical practice around autistic healthcare should account for inequitable distribution of autism diagnoses in society, the diagnostic complexity associated with other mental health conditions and apparent changes in the average health needs of autistic groups. The extent to which these changes indicate nuanced recognition of autism or broadening of diagnostic practice needs investigation.
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BibTeX
@article{sadik2026changes,
title = {{Changes in the profile of adults diagnosed as autistic since 2010: population-based studies in the UK and Sweden}},
author = {Aws Sadik and Michael Lundberg and Golam M Khandaker and Antonio F Pardiñas and Brian K Lee and Paul Madley-Dowd and Cecilia Magnusson and Dheeraj Rai},
journal = {BMJ Mental Health},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.1136/bmjment-2026-302983},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjment-2026-302983},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Changes in the profile of adults diagnosed as autistic since 2010: population-based studies in the UK and Sweden
AU - Aws Sadik
AU - Michael Lundberg
AU - Golam M Khandaker
AU - Antonio F Pardiñas
AU - Brian K Lee
AU - Paul Madley-Dowd
AU - Cecilia Magnusson
AU - Dheeraj Rai
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/03
JO - BMJ Mental Health
DO - 10.1136/bmjment-2026-302983
UR - https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjment-2026-302983
AB - Background: Autism diagnoses have risen consistently over time. Characterising the backgrounds of adults being diagnosed with autism can help to clarify why. Objective: To understand if sociodemographic and neuropsychiatric characteristics of adults diagnosed with autism in the UK and Sweden have changed since 2010. Methods: Using UK primary care records from 2010 to 2023 and Swedish population-wide register linkages from 2010 to 2021, we calculated annual age-standardised incidence and prevalence of adult autism diagnoses within different sociodemographic groups. We also calculated annual age-standardised proportion of adults with prior records of other neuropsychiatric conditions or medications by autism diagnosis status. Findings: In the UK, 24 537 039 adults contributed to the study, including 141 119 with an autism diagnosis. In Sweden, 9 096 874 adults contributed, including 100 817 with an autism diagnosis. Incident (first recorded) adult autism diagnoses were consistently higher in Sweden than the UK; however, incidence increased rapidly in the UK after 2020. Incident diagnoses increased fastest for 16–20 year-olds and females in both nations, as well as people in white ethnic groups in the UK and people with Swedish-born parents in Sweden. Over time, there has been a consistent decline in the proportion of autistic adults with a prior diagnosis of epilepsy, psychosis and intellectual disability and an increase in the proportion with a prior diagnosis of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anxiety, depression and several other mental illnesses. For example, in the UK between 2010 and 2023, a history of epilepsy among adults with newly recorded autism decreased from 10% (95% CI 7.6% to 13%) to 4% (95% CI 3.6% to 4.5%), while a history of anxiety increased from 28.7% (95% CI 24.4% to 33.6%) to 58.3% (95% CI 56.6% to 60.1%). Trends were broadly consistent between females and males. Conclusions: The characteristics of individuals diagnosed as autistic have changed dramatically since 2010 in both the UK and Sweden. Clinical implications: Service design and clinical practice around autistic healthcare should account for inequitable distribution of autism diagnoses in society, the diagnostic complexity associated with other mental health conditions and apparent changes in the average health needs of autistic groups. The extent to which these changes indicate nuanced recognition of autism or broadening of diagnostic practice needs investigation.
SN - 2755-9734
ER -