Unveiling the seasonal dynamics of leishmaniosis: High-resolution monthly potential risk mapping and future expansion of Leishmania infantum in Europe
- 1Zoonotic Diseases and One Health Group, Faculty of Pharmacy, Centre for Environmental Studies and Rural Dynamization (CEADIR), University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain
- 2Ceva Santé Animale, Libourne, France
- 3Biomedical Research Institute of Salamanca (IBSAL), University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain
Abstract
Background: Zoonotic leishmaniosis, caused by Leishmania infantum, is a major public health and veterinary concern in Europe. Traditionally restricted to the Mediterranean basin, the disease is currently undergoing a rapid geographical expansion towards Central and Northern Europe, driven by climate change and the plasticity of its vectors. Current epidemiological surveillance often relies on static annual prevalence maps, which fail to capture the critical intra-annual fluctuations in transmission risk. This study aims to bridge this gap by developing the first high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of L. infantum potential infection risk across the entire European continent, providing a dynamic tool to optimize control strategies under a One Health framework. Methods: We developed Ecological Niche Models (MaxEnt) for the two primary European vectors, Phlebotomus perniciosus and Phlebotomus perfiliewi. To estimate the transmission capability, we integrated these habitat suitability models with a biological model of parasite development (Rioux’s algorithm), which calculates the infection rate based on daily mean temperatures (10–30 °C thermal window). This integration allowed for the generation of continuous annual and monthly potential risk maps. Furthermore, we projected the potential infection risk to the year 2100 under the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario to quantify future range shifts and potential expansion into non-endemic territories. Results: The models exhibited excellent predictive performance (AUC ≥ 0.900), with annual mean temperature being the dominant driver for both vectors. The results confirmed high endemic risk in the Mediterranean basin but revealed significant emerging risk zones in the Balkans, Romania and the Southern Plateau of Spain. The monthly analysis unveiled a dynamic seasonality: transmission is latent in winter, restricted to southern coastal refuges, but expands latitudinally during spring and summer, covering most of Central Europe before retracting in autumn. Future projections for 2100 indicate an alarming 347.9% net increase in infection risk areas. The models predict a massive colonization of northeastern Europe and high-altitude regions, with no current risk areas becoming unsuitable. Conclusions/Significance: This study demonstrates that L. infantum transmission in Europe is a highly dynamic phenomenon defined by seasonal thermal windows rather than static boundaries. The projected expansion towards northern latitudes challenges the historical notion of leishmaniosis as solely a southern European disease. These dynamic risk maps represent a strategic One Health tool, enabling health authorities and veterinarians to transition from rigid calendar-based prophylaxis to adaptive, evidence-based interventions. This is particularly crucial for identifying transmission periods in emerging transition zones, ensuring better protection for both animal and human populations in a changing climate. Author summary: Zoonotic leishmaniosis, caused by the parasite Leishmania infantum, is an endemic disease in southern Europe that severely affects dogs and can be transmitted to humans by the competent vector. Historically, the risk was limited to the Mediterranean basin; however, climate changes and pet movements are facilitating the expansion of sand flies (the vector insect) toward the center and north of the continent. Until now, most risk maps were static, merely indicating whether an area was dangerous on an annual level, thus ignoring the fact that transmission risk fluctuates drastically depending on the season. In this study, we have developed the first high-resolution potential risk maps for the entire European continent that detail the probability of infection month by month. To achieve this, we employed mathematical models combining the distribution of the two primary vectors (Ph. perniciosus and Ph. perfiliewi) with the temperature required for the pathogen to develop inside the vector. Our results demonstrate that leishmaniosis transmission in Europe is a highly dynamic phenomenon: while the potential risk is negligible in winter (except on warm southern coasts), it expands rapidly during summer toward northern latitudes and mountain areas previously considered safe. Furthermore, our projections indicate that if global warming continues, the potential risk area in Europe could increase by nearly 350% by the year 2100. These findings are crucial for veterinarians and health authorities, as they provide a precise tool to determine not only where but when to apply preventive measures on dogs (such as repellent parasiticides and vaccines), thereby optimizing disease control under a One Health strategy.
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BibTeX
@article{gonzalezmohino2026unveiling,
title = {{Unveiling the seasonal dynamics of leishmaniosis: High-resolution monthly potential risk mapping and future expansion of Leishmania infantum in Europe}},
author = {Elena Infante González-Mohino and Iván Rodríguez-Escolar and Alfonso Balmori-de la Puente and Ione Urizar-Molina and Alberto Gil-Abad and Manuel Collado-Cuadrado and Alessia Crippa and Rodrigo Morchón},
journal = {PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0014673},
url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0014673},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Unveiling the seasonal dynamics of leishmaniosis: High-resolution monthly potential risk mapping and future expansion of Leishmania infantum in Europe
AU - Elena Infante González-Mohino
AU - Iván Rodríguez-Escolar
AU - Alfonso Balmori-de la Puente
AU - Ione Urizar-Molina
AU - Alberto Gil-Abad
AU - Manuel Collado-Cuadrado
AU - Alessia Crippa
AU - Rodrigo Morchón
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/16
JO - PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
DO - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0014673
UR - https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0014673
AB - Background: Zoonotic leishmaniosis, caused by Leishmania infantum, is a major public health and veterinary concern in Europe. Traditionally restricted to the Mediterranean basin, the disease is currently undergoing a rapid geographical expansion towards Central and Northern Europe, driven by climate change and the plasticity of its vectors. Current epidemiological surveillance often relies on static annual prevalence maps, which fail to capture the critical intra-annual fluctuations in transmission risk. This study aims to bridge this gap by developing the first high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of L. infantum potential infection risk across the entire European continent, providing a dynamic tool to optimize control strategies under a One Health framework. Methods: We developed Ecological Niche Models (MaxEnt) for the two primary European vectors, Phlebotomus perniciosus and Phlebotomus perfiliewi. To estimate the transmission capability, we integrated these habitat suitability models with a biological model of parasite development (Rioux’s algorithm), which calculates the infection rate based on daily mean temperatures (10–30 °C thermal window). This integration allowed for the generation of continuous annual and monthly potential risk maps. Furthermore, we projected the potential infection risk to the year 2100 under the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario to quantify future range shifts and potential expansion into non-endemic territories. Results: The models exhibited excellent predictive performance (AUC ≥ 0.900), with annual mean temperature being the dominant driver for both vectors. The results confirmed high endemic risk in the Mediterranean basin but revealed significant emerging risk zones in the Balkans, Romania and the Southern Plateau of Spain. The monthly analysis unveiled a dynamic seasonality: transmission is latent in winter, restricted to southern coastal refuges, but expands latitudinally during spring and summer, covering most of Central Europe before retracting in autumn. Future projections for 2100 indicate an alarming 347.9% net increase in infection risk areas. The models predict a massive colonization of northeastern Europe and high-altitude regions, with no current risk areas becoming unsuitable. Conclusions/Significance: This study demonstrates that L. infantum transmission in Europe is a highly dynamic phenomenon defined by seasonal thermal windows rather than static boundaries. The projected expansion towards northern latitudes challenges the historical notion of leishmaniosis as solely a southern European disease. These dynamic risk maps represent a strategic One Health tool, enabling health authorities and veterinarians to transition from rigid calendar-based prophylaxis to adaptive, evidence-based interventions. This is particularly crucial for identifying transmission periods in emerging transition zones, ensuring better protection for both animal and human populations in a changing climate. Author summary: Zoonotic leishmaniosis, caused by the parasite Leishmania infantum, is an endemic disease in southern Europe that severely affects dogs and can be transmitted to humans by the competent vector. Historically, the risk was limited to the Mediterranean basin; however, climate changes and pet movements are facilitating the expansion of sand flies (the vector insect) toward the center and north of the continent. Until now, most risk maps were static, merely indicating whether an area was dangerous on an annual level, thus ignoring the fact that transmission risk fluctuates drastically depending on the season. In this study, we have developed the first high-resolution potential risk maps for the entire European continent that detail the probability of infection month by month. To achieve this, we employed mathematical models combining the distribution of the two primary vectors (Ph. perniciosus and Ph. perfiliewi) with the temperature required for the pathogen to develop inside the vector. Our results demonstrate that leishmaniosis transmission in Europe is a highly dynamic phenomenon: while the potential risk is negligible in winter (except on warm southern coasts), it expands rapidly during summer toward northern latitudes and mountain areas previously considered safe. Furthermore, our projections indicate that if global warming continues, the potential risk area in Europe could increase by nearly 350% by the year 2100. These findings are crucial for veterinarians and health authorities, as they provide a precise tool to determine not only where but when to apply preventive measures on dogs (such as repellent parasiticides and vaccines), thereby optimizing disease control under a One Health strategy.
SN - 1935-2735
ER -