Wildlife depredation stabilizes ecological-economic systems and can lead to improved economic outcomes
- 1University of Oxford
Abstract
Human-wildlife conflicts over shared resources are often interpreted as direct competition, whereby resources consumed by wildlife are unavailable to people. Yet, individuals of wild populations can differ in their propensity to exploit resources, and the demographic, ecological, and economic consequences of such behavioural heterogeneity remain poorly understood. We developed an integrated demographic-bioeconomic model of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), grey seals (Halichoerus grypus), and a coastal gillnet fishery. Stage-structured population models incorporated density dependence, predator-prey interactions, adaptive harvesting, and transitions of adult seals into a bold, depredating state. We compared four scenarios of increasing complexity over 50 years across 100 coupled demographic realisations and examined sensitivity to the energetic contribution of depredated catch, harvest levels, and social amplification of depredation behaviour. Cod and seals persisted in all demographic realisations, supporting our ecological-persistence hypothesis. Contrary to our predictions, however, adding bold seals neither reduced long-term fishery performance nor destabilised the system. Median net present value was approximately three-fold greater in the full system than without depredation, and was greater in 76% of paired realisations. The full system was also the most temporally stable: median cod variability declined by 74% relative to the otherwise equivalent fishery without depredation, while seal variability declined by 45%. Behavioural depredation therefore altered predator population structure and imposed direct catch losses, but these effects were counterbalanced by indirect demographic feedbacks. Synthesis and applications. Depredating predators should not necessarily be viewed simply as competitors that reduce contested resources. Behavioural heterogeneity can introduce compensatory pathways that alter population stability and long-term economic outcomes. Management should therefore consider not only predator abundance and immediate catch losses, but also how harvest creates opportunities for behavioural change and how those changes propagate through coupled ecological-economic systems.
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BibTeX
@misc{davis2026wildlife,
title = {{Wildlife depredation stabilizes ecological-economic systems and can lead to improved economic outcomes}},
author = {K. J. Davis and R. Salguero-Gomez},
howpublished = {bioRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.64898/2026.09.21.753200},
url = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.21.753200v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Wildlife depredation stabilizes ecological-economic systems and can lead to improved economic outcomes
AU - K. J. Davis
AU - R. Salguero-Gomez
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/21
PB - bioRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.09.21.753200
UR - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.21.753200v1
AB - Human-wildlife conflicts over shared resources are often interpreted as direct competition, whereby resources consumed by wildlife are unavailable to people. Yet, individuals of wild populations can differ in their propensity to exploit resources, and the demographic, ecological, and economic consequences of such behavioural heterogeneity remain poorly understood. We developed an integrated demographic-bioeconomic model of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), grey seals (Halichoerus grypus), and a coastal gillnet fishery. Stage-structured population models incorporated density dependence, predator-prey interactions, adaptive harvesting, and transitions of adult seals into a bold, depredating state. We compared four scenarios of increasing complexity over 50 years across 100 coupled demographic realisations and examined sensitivity to the energetic contribution of depredated catch, harvest levels, and social amplification of depredation behaviour. Cod and seals persisted in all demographic realisations, supporting our ecological-persistence hypothesis. Contrary to our predictions, however, adding bold seals neither reduced long-term fishery performance nor destabilised the system. Median net present value was approximately three-fold greater in the full system than without depredation, and was greater in 76% of paired realisations. The full system was also the most temporally stable: median cod variability declined by 74% relative to the otherwise equivalent fishery without depredation, while seal variability declined by 45%. Behavioural depredation therefore altered predator population structure and imposed direct catch losses, but these effects were counterbalanced by indirect demographic feedbacks. Synthesis and applications. Depredating predators should not necessarily be viewed simply as competitors that reduce contested resources. Behavioural heterogeneity can introduce compensatory pathways that alter population stability and long-term economic outcomes. Management should therefore consider not only predator abundance and immediate catch losses, but also how harvest creates opportunities for behavioural change and how those changes propagate through coupled ecological-economic systems.
ER -