Multilateral governance of invasive alien species management: An ecological-economic model with Allee effect
Abstract
Invasive alien species (IAS) generate substantial ecological and economic damages that often transcend political boundaries, creating strong incentives for coordinated management. We develop a two-region ecological-economic model of IAS control that integrates prevention and eradication measures with population dynamics characterized by logistic growth and an Allee effect. We derive analytical results on the interaction between ecological thresholds and strategic behaviour and compare outcomes under cooperation (central planner) and non-cooperation (open loop Nash equilibrium and Markovian Nash equilibrium). We show that, under realistic control costs, neither prevention nor eradication can eliminate invasive populations in finite time, and complete prevention of cross-border spread is generally not optimal. In the absence of an Allee effect, the zero-population equilibrium is unstable, implying long-run persistence of the invasive species. By contrast, the presence of an Allee effect fundamentally alters system dynamics by making extinction locally stable and creating a basin of attraction within which eradication becomes feasible. This finding highlights the economic significance of ecological thresholds and demonstrates how delays in management can shift populations beyond critical levels, after which eradication is unlikely regardless of subsequent control efforts. Numerical simulations further show that cooperative management expands the set of initial conditions leading to eradication and consistently reduces aggregate social costs relative to decentralized management. The results provide a formal rationale for rapid intervention, precautionary regulation, and stronger multilateral cooperation in IAS management, particularly in jurisdictions such as the European Union where listing and control actions may be delayed pending evidence of harm.
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BibTeX
@misc{boucekkine2026multilateral,
title = {{Multilateral governance of invasive alien species management: An ecological-economic model with Allee effect}},
author = {Raouf Boucekkine and Weihua Ruan and Ullrika Sahlin},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.14916},
eprint = {2610.14916},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.14916},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Multilateral governance of invasive alien species management: An ecological-economic model with Allee effect
AU - Raouf Boucekkine
AU - Weihua Ruan
AU - Ullrika Sahlin
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/10
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.14916
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.14916
AB - Invasive alien species (IAS) generate substantial ecological and economic damages that often transcend political boundaries, creating strong incentives for coordinated management. We develop a two-region ecological-economic model of IAS control that integrates prevention and eradication measures with population dynamics characterized by logistic growth and an Allee effect. We derive analytical results on the interaction between ecological thresholds and strategic behaviour and compare outcomes under cooperation (central planner) and non-cooperation (open loop Nash equilibrium and Markovian Nash equilibrium). We show that, under realistic control costs, neither prevention nor eradication can eliminate invasive populations in finite time, and complete prevention of cross-border spread is generally not optimal. In the absence of an Allee effect, the zero-population equilibrium is unstable, implying long-run persistence of the invasive species. By contrast, the presence of an Allee effect fundamentally alters system dynamics by making extinction locally stable and creating a basin of attraction within which eradication becomes feasible. This finding highlights the economic significance of ecological thresholds and demonstrates how delays in management can shift populations beyond critical levels, after which eradication is unlikely regardless of subsequent control efforts. Numerical simulations further show that cooperative management expands the set of initial conditions leading to eradication and consistently reduces aggregate social costs relative to decentralized management. The results provide a formal rationale for rapid intervention, precautionary regulation, and stronger multilateral cooperation in IAS management, particularly in jurisdictions such as the European Union where listing and control actions may be delayed pending evidence of harm.
ER -