Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of European windstorms in CMIP6 climate models
Abstract
A recently developed set of historical storm reconstructions were extensively validated by insurance loss data and revealed how European windstorm damages were three times higher in the 1980s and '90s compared to a few decades before and since. A better understanding of these slower fluctuations could improve how this costly risk is managed. Here, we explore the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols (AA) on European property damage using results from DAMIP (Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project) climate model experiments. Multimodel mean DAMIP results indicate AA boosted European wind losses by 45 % in the late 20th century relative to preindustrial times, with the signal varying from zero to 100 % between the six models. A validation of these modelling results using independent data from previous climate studies suggested the signal is more likely to be at the higher end of this range. While this evidence suggests AA forcing contributed significantly to recent multidecadal changes in European windstorm losses, there remains significant uncertainties in model responses and the observational data used in their validation. Further research would benefit those exposed to this hazard.
Versions
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BibTeX
@article{cusack2026anthropogenic,
title = {{Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of European windstorms in CMIP6 climate models}},
author = {Stephen Cusack},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5194/nhess-26-4663-2026},
url = {https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/26/4663/2026/},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of European windstorms in CMIP6 climate models
AU - Stephen Cusack
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
JO - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DO - 10.5194/nhess-26-4663-2026
UR - https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/26/4663/2026/
AB - A recently developed set of historical storm reconstructions were extensively validated by insurance loss data and revealed how European windstorm damages were three times higher in the 1980s and '90s compared to a few decades before and since. A better understanding of these slower fluctuations could improve how this costly risk is managed. Here, we explore the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols (AA) on European property damage using results from DAMIP (Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project) climate model experiments. Multimodel mean DAMIP results indicate AA boosted European wind losses by 45 % in the late 20th century relative to preindustrial times, with the signal varying from zero to 100 % between the six models. A validation of these modelling results using independent data from previous climate studies suggested the signal is more likely to be at the higher end of this range. While this evidence suggests AA forcing contributed significantly to recent multidecadal changes in European windstorm losses, there remains significant uncertainties in model responses and the observational data used in their validation. Further research would benefit those exposed to this hazard.
SN - 1684-9981
ER -