Anthropogenic aerosol reduction contributes to faster flash drought onset in a changing climate
Abstract
Flash droughts have emerged as severe hazards, posing growing challenges to natural and socioeconomic systems, yet the influence of recent aerosol reductions on their onset remains unclear. Here, we investigate the impacts of aerosols and their underlying mechanisms using multi-source observations and large-ensemble climate simulations. Lower aerosol levels are increasingly linked to severe soil moisture deficits, with aerosol effects on onset-speed variability intensifying across 69.2% of regions. During the onset stage, air temperature pathways associated with aerosol variability account for a larger fraction of onset-speed variability than pathways linked to atmospheric demand. Aerosols have long acted to dampen flash drought development; however, their reduction, acting within a warming climate, contributes to faster flash drought onset. As aerosol emissions decline in the future, the area at higher risk of flash drought acceleration in aerosol-forced simulations is projected to increase by 11.7% during 2070–2099 relative to the historical period of 1990–2019.
Related
- Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of European windstorms in CMIP6 climate models
- Isotopic composition of aerosol iron from anthropogenic sources: implications for source apportionment of aerosol iron
- Improved human development index may mitigate drought risk under the changing climate and socio-economic conditions
- Spatiotemporal variations in hydrometeorological drought across North Africa and indications of anthropogenic amplification
- Anthropogenic groundwater declines may exert far-reaching climatic impacts
BibTeX
@article{wei2026anthropogenic,
title = {{Anthropogenic aerosol reduction contributes to faster flash drought onset in a changing climate}},
author = {Jia Wei and Shuo Wang and Weiguang Wang and Jason A. Otkin and Diego G. Miralles and Amir AghaKouchak},
journal = {Nature Communications},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-78230-4},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-78230-4},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Anthropogenic aerosol reduction contributes to faster flash drought onset in a changing climate
AU - Jia Wei
AU - Shuo Wang
AU - Weiguang Wang
AU - Jason A. Otkin
AU - Diego G. Miralles
AU - Amir AghaKouchak
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/06
JO - Nature Communications
DO - 10.1038/s41467-026-78230-4
UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-78230-4
AB - Flash droughts have emerged as severe hazards, posing growing challenges to natural and socioeconomic systems, yet the influence of recent aerosol reductions on their onset remains unclear. Here, we investigate the impacts of aerosols and their underlying mechanisms using multi-source observations and large-ensemble climate simulations. Lower aerosol levels are increasingly linked to severe soil moisture deficits, with aerosol effects on onset-speed variability intensifying across 69.2% of regions. During the onset stage, air temperature pathways associated with aerosol variability account for a larger fraction of onset-speed variability than pathways linked to atmospheric demand. Aerosols have long acted to dampen flash drought development; however, their reduction, acting within a warming climate, contributes to faster flash drought onset. As aerosol emissions decline in the future, the area at higher risk of flash drought acceleration in aerosol-forced simulations is projected to increase by 11.7% during 2070–2099 relative to the historical period of 1990–2019.
SN - 2041-1723
ER -