Poisson contingency tables, Gibbs permutations, and entropic optimal transport
Abstract
We study random contingency tables obtained by conditioning a matrix of independent Poisson entries on its row and column sums. We identify such a table with the block counts of a random permutation drawn from a Gibbs measure of Mallows type, an exact coupling whose normalizing constants recover Barvinok's permanent identity. We use this correspondence to study the table at three scales. For finite dimensions, a transference principle compares the table with a matrix of independent Poisson entries whose means form the static Schrödinger bridge, the solution of a discrete entropic optimal transport problem. As the dimensions grow and the margins and prior means converge, the normalized histogram of the table converges to a limiting Schrödinger bridge at a quantitative rate. The fluctuations of the table around the bridge are characterized in two complementary ways. Linear statistics satisfy a central limit theorem for bounded test functions, with limiting variance equal to the squared L2-distance, under the bridge, of the test function to the subspace of additively separable functions; as a process they converge to white noise with intensity given by the bridge, conditioned to have vanishing marginals. Spectrally, the limiting spectral distribution of the centered table is governed by a Dyson equation whose variance profile is the density of the bridge. The key ingredient is an asymptotic formula for the partition function of the Gibbs measure in terms of a Fredholm determinant given by the canonical correlations of the bridge. For Mallows-type random permutations, our results prove Pal's conjecture on the limiting partition function and Mukherjee's conjecture on the central limit theorem for linear statistics, both in greater generality.
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BibTeX
@misc{duan2026poisson,
title = {{Poisson contingency tables, Gibbs permutations, and entropic optimal transport}},
author = {Danny Duan and Hanbaek Lyu and William Powell},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.14616},
eprint = {2610.14616},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.14616},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Poisson contingency tables, Gibbs permutations, and entropic optimal transport
AU - Danny Duan
AU - Hanbaek Lyu
AU - William Powell
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/10
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.14616
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.14616
AB - We study random contingency tables obtained by conditioning a matrix of independent Poisson entries on its row and column sums. We identify such a table with the block counts of a random permutation drawn from a Gibbs measure of Mallows type, an exact coupling whose normalizing constants recover Barvinok's permanent identity. We use this correspondence to study the table at three scales. For finite dimensions, a transference principle compares the table with a matrix of independent Poisson entries whose means form the static Schrödinger bridge, the solution of a discrete entropic optimal transport problem. As the dimensions grow and the margins and prior means converge, the normalized histogram of the table converges to a limiting Schrödinger bridge at a quantitative rate. The fluctuations of the table around the bridge are characterized in two complementary ways. Linear statistics satisfy a central limit theorem for bounded test functions, with limiting variance equal to the squared L^2-distance, under the bridge, of the test function to the subspace of additively separable functions; as a process they converge to white noise with intensity given by the bridge, conditioned to have vanishing marginals. Spectrally, the limiting spectral distribution of the centered table is governed by a Dyson equation whose variance profile is the density of the bridge. The key ingredient is an asymptotic formula for the partition function of the Gibbs measure in terms of a Fredholm determinant given by the canonical correlations of the bridge. For Mallows-type random permutations, our results prove Pal's conjecture on the limiting partition function and Mukherjee's conjecture on the central limit theorem for linear statistics, both in greater generality.
ER -