Modeling the impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Argentina between 2018 and 2024
- 1Observatorio de Salud Pública, Calidad de Vida y Medioambiente, Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina , ,
- 2Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina , ,
- 3Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Agrarias, Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina, UTN, FRBA, UIDI , ,
Abstract
Background: Dengue fever has become an epidemiological concern worldwide, with 531,617 cases reported in Argentina during the 2023–2024 season. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has been linked to changes in dengue dynamics. This study assessed the relationships among ENSO, local climatic variables, and dengue outbreaks in Argentina from 2018 to 2024.
Methods: A nationwide spatiotemporal analysis was conducted using dengue cases and monthly mean temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was used as the ENSO indicator (El Niño phase ≤ −0.5, neutral phase = −0.5 to 0.5, and La Niña phase ≥ 0.5). We fitted Hierarchical Bayesian models with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). A Negative Binomial distribution of dengue cases was used to account for overdispersion. Spatial dependence was modeled by using the Besag–York–Mollié 2 (BYM2) structure, adjusted for population.
Results: The final model achieved a Nagelkerke pseudo-R ² of 0.537. Exposure-response curves of posterior probability and 95% credible intervals suggested that dengue risk increased when monthly mean temperatures were between 20° and 30° Celsius during the El Niño or neutral phase, with less consistent effects during the La Niña phase. Humidity >50% was associated with increased dengue risk during the La Niña phase, with less steep or absent associations during El Niño or neutral phases. Negative SOI scores were associated with an increased risk of dengue after controlling for the covariates.
Conclusion: Dengue outbreaks in Argentina were independently associated with temperatures between 20 and 30 °C during the El Niño and neutral phases, humidity > 50% during the La Niña phase, and the El Niño phase of the ENSO. Incorporating ENSO indices into predictive models could enhance early warning systems and timely public health interventions in Argentina.
Related
- Modelling the impact of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the dynamics of Dengue outbreaks in Argentina between 2018 and 2024.
- Metabolic Profiling, Antioxidant Activity, and Mechanistic Insights of Chicory from Northern and Southern China: Integrating Metabolomics, Machine Learning, Molecular Docking, Molecular Dynamics Simulations, and In Vitro Assays
- Environmental and demographic determinants of Aedes albopictus seasonal activity in southern France: A modeling study
- Label-Scarce Ultrasound Biopsy Needle Identification Using Dynamics-Guided Prior Modeling
- Art, normality and sensitivities: artistic workshops as spaces of expression for young people and adults with intellectual disabilities in Córdoba, Argentina
BibTeX
@article{enet2026modeling,
title = {{Modeling the impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Argentina between 2018 and 2024}},
author = {Alejandro Enet and Chiara Elizabeth Lodigiani and Maia Arrúa Miano and Gabriela Lakkis and Lucas Mariano Moreno Lell and Carla María Panzarella and Sol Denise Otero Legovich and Ornella Abril Bellizzi and Manuela Bulló and Santiago Perez-Lloret},
journal = {Frontiers in public health},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.3389/fpubh.2026.1830837},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13662023},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Modeling the impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Argentina between 2018 and 2024
AU - Alejandro Enet
AU - Chiara Elizabeth Lodigiani
AU - Maia Arrúa Miano
AU - Gabriela Lakkis
AU - Lucas Mariano Moreno Lell
AU - Carla María Panzarella
AU - Sol Denise Otero Legovich
AU - Ornella Abril Bellizzi
AU - Manuela Bulló
AU - Santiago Perez-Lloret
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/30
JO - Frontiers in public health
DO - 10.3389/fpubh.2026.1830837
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13662023
AB - Background: Dengue fever has become an epidemiological concern worldwide, with 531,617 cases reported in Argentina during the 2023–2024 season. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has been linked to changes in dengue dynamics. This study assessed the relationships among ENSO, local climatic variables, and dengue outbreaks in Argentina from 2018 to 2024. Methods: A nationwide spatiotemporal analysis was conducted using dengue cases and monthly mean temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was used as the ENSO indicator (El Niño phase ≤ −0.5, neutral phase = −0.5 to 0.5, and La Niña phase ≥ 0.5). We fitted Hierarchical Bayesian models with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). A Negative Binomial distribution of dengue cases was used to account for overdispersion. Spatial dependence was modeled by using the Besag–York–Mollié 2 (BYM2) structure, adjusted for population. Results: The final model achieved a Nagelkerke pseudo-R ² of 0.537. Exposure-response curves of posterior probability and 95% credible intervals suggested that dengue risk increased when monthly mean temperatures were between 20° and 30° Celsius during the El Niño or neutral phase, with less consistent effects during the La Niña phase. Humidity >50% was associated with increased dengue risk during the La Niña phase, with less steep or absent associations during El Niño or neutral phases. Negative SOI scores were associated with an increased risk of dengue after controlling for the covariates. Conclusion: Dengue outbreaks in Argentina were independently associated with temperatures between 20 and 30 °C during the El Niño and neutral phases, humidity > 50% during the La Niña phase, and the El Niño phase of the ENSO. Incorporating ENSO indices into predictive models could enhance early warning systems and timely public health interventions in Argentina.
SN - 2296-2565
ER -