Hydroclimatic whiplash events and social inequalities shape dengue outbreaks at the global scale
4 affiliations
- 1Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Corresponding author
- 2Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- 3Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Lombardia e dell’Emilia-Romagna “Bruno Ubertini” (IZSLER), Brescia, Italy
- 4Department of Geosciences, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, Enschede, the Netherlands
Abstract
Dengue is expanding worldwide under the combined pressures of climate change, rapid urbanization, and persistent social inequalities. While temperature and rainfall are established drivers of transmission, less is known about whether rapid transitions between dry and wet extremes (i.e., hydroclimatic whiplash events) influence dengue outbreak onsets and how social inequalities modify these associations. In this study, we examine dry and wet extremes and dry-to-wet (D2W) and wet-to-dry (W2D) whiplash events at subnational scale across Latin America, Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and Australia. Event coincidence analysis showed that dengue outbreak onsets frequently followed whiplash events, particularly W2D transitions at short lags. Whiplash characteristics were associated with outbreak onset, but duration and severity alone did not explain emergence. Temperature, humidity, inequality, and urban context modify dengue risk during hydroclimatic extremes. These findings suggest that whiplash events influence dengue risk and may support surveillance when interpreted alongside social vulnerability and local epidemiological information. Science for society: Dengue is spreading globally as climate change, rapid urbanization, and social inequalities create conditions that enable transmission. Our study shows that rapid dry-to-wet and wet-to-dry transitions can precede dengue outbreaks, with wet-to-dry events showing particularly strong short-term signals in some regions. However, these events should not be treated as automatic outbreak triggers. Their effects depend on local temperature, humidity, urban conditions, and social inequality. Monitoring hydroclimatic whiplash alongside routine disease surveillance and information on social vulnerability could help public-health agencies identify periods of elevated risk and target preparedness more effectively. This is especially important where water storage, infrastructure limitations, and unequal access to prevention may amplify mosquito exposure. Integrating climate, health, and socioeconomic information can support more locally tailored and equitable dengue early-warning and response strategies.
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BibTeX
@article{mazzoleni2026hydroclimatic,
title = {{Hydroclimatic whiplash events and social inequalities shape dengue outbreaks at the global scale}},
author = {Maurizio Mazzoleni and Alessia Matanó and Francesco Defilippo and Yanchao Cheng and Elena Raffetti},
journal = {Cell Reports Sustainability},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.crsus.2026.100835},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsus.2026.100835},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Hydroclimatic whiplash events and social inequalities shape dengue outbreaks at the global scale
AU - Maurizio Mazzoleni
AU - Alessia Matanó
AU - Francesco Defilippo
AU - Yanchao Cheng
AU - Elena Raffetti
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/25
JO - Cell Reports Sustainability
DO - 10.1016/j.crsus.2026.100835
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsus.2026.100835
AB - Dengue is expanding worldwide under the combined pressures of climate change, rapid urbanization, and persistent social inequalities. While temperature and rainfall are established drivers of transmission, less is known about whether rapid transitions between dry and wet extremes (i.e., hydroclimatic whiplash events) influence dengue outbreak onsets and how social inequalities modify these associations. In this study, we examine dry and wet extremes and dry-to-wet (D2W) and wet-to-dry (W2D) whiplash events at subnational scale across Latin America, Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and Australia. Event coincidence analysis showed that dengue outbreak onsets frequently followed whiplash events, particularly W2D transitions at short lags. Whiplash characteristics were associated with outbreak onset, but duration and severity alone did not explain emergence. Temperature, humidity, inequality, and urban context modify dengue risk during hydroclimatic extremes. These findings suggest that whiplash events influence dengue risk and may support surveillance when interpreted alongside social vulnerability and local epidemiological information. Science for society: Dengue is spreading globally as climate change, rapid urbanization, and social inequalities create conditions that enable transmission. Our study shows that rapid dry-to-wet and wet-to-dry transitions can precede dengue outbreaks, with wet-to-dry events showing particularly strong short-term signals in some regions. However, these events should not be treated as automatic outbreak triggers. Their effects depend on local temperature, humidity, urban conditions, and social inequality. Monitoring hydroclimatic whiplash alongside routine disease surveillance and information on social vulnerability could help public-health agencies identify periods of elevated risk and target preparedness more effectively. This is especially important where water storage, infrastructure limitations, and unequal access to prevention may amplify mosquito exposure. Integrating climate, health, and socioeconomic information can support more locally tailored and equitable dengue early-warning and response strategies.
SN - 2949-7906
ER -