Mutation-resolved ABL1 inhibitor resistance prediction under mutation-disjoint and temporal cross-study validation
7 affiliations
- 1Research Institute of Sciences and Engineering, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
- 2Department of Computer Science, College of Information Technology, Misr University for Science and Technology (MUST), Giza, Egypt
- 3Faculty of Engineering, INTI International University, Nilai, Malaysia
- 4Shinawatra University, Bangkok, Pathum Thani, Thailand
- 5Applied Science Research Center, Applied Science Private University, Amman, Jordan
- 6Department of Engineering, School of Science and Engineering, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, United Kingdom
- 7Istanbul Gelisim University, Istanbul, Turkey
Abstract
Computational prediction of ABL1 tyrosine-kinase inhibitor (TKI) resistance is difficult because available mutation–drug datasets are small, imbalanced, and heterogeneous. This study evaluates structure-aware resistance prediction under mutation-disjoint internal validation and temporal cross-study outcome validation. The development benchmark comprised 144 ABL1 mutation–TKI records (19 resistant and 125 susceptible) labelled by a ten-fold affinity-loss criterion. A fixed panel of 11 documented structural and energetic predictors was used to minimize data-adaptive feature selection within the validation framework. A calibrated ensemble combining Elastic-Net logistic regression, radial-basis-function support-vector machines, random forests, and XGBoost was evaluated using mutation-disjoint five-fold grouped out-of-fold prediction repeated ten times. Temporal validation used a later prime-editing resistance map, yielding 84 exact mutation–TKI matches across imatinib, nilotinib, bosutinib, and ponatinib; 61 had binary Sensitive/Resistant outcomes and 23 were retained as Intermediate. The 11-feature stack achieved grouped internal AUROC 0.645 (95% CI 0.429–0.830) and PR-AUC 0.230, with mean ± SD AUROC 0.583 ± 0.101 across repeated grouped splits. On the 61 binary later-study outcomes, AUROC was 0.605 (95% CI 0.431–0.874) and PR-AUC 0.835, modestly above the resistance-prevalence baseline of 0.770. External calibration was poor (Brier score 0.583; calibration slope 0.441). Elastic-Net showed somewhat higher temporal discrimination (AUROC 0.643; PR-AUC 0.877). These results indicate limited transportability across mutation identities and experimental platforms and support use of the framework for hypothesis-generating resistance screening rather than clinically calibrated treatment selection.
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BibTeX
@article{deif2026mutationresolved,
title = {{Mutation-resolved ABL1 inhibitor resistance prediction under mutation-disjoint and temporal cross-study validation}},
author = {Mohanad A. Deif and Mohamed A. Hafez and Mohammad Khishe and Ahmed Solyman and Ismail A. M. Elhaty},
journal = {PLOS One},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0353101},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0353101},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Mutation-resolved ABL1 inhibitor resistance prediction under mutation-disjoint and temporal cross-study validation
AU - Mohanad A. Deif
AU - Mohamed A. Hafez
AU - Mohammad Khishe
AU - Ahmed Solyman
AU - Ismail A. M. Elhaty
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/27
JO - PLOS One
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0353101
UR - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0353101
AB - Computational prediction of ABL1 tyrosine-kinase inhibitor (TKI) resistance is difficult because available mutation–drug datasets are small, imbalanced, and heterogeneous. This study evaluates structure-aware resistance prediction under mutation-disjoint internal validation and temporal cross-study outcome validation. The development benchmark comprised 144 ABL1 mutation–TKI records (19 resistant and 125 susceptible) labelled by a ten-fold affinity-loss criterion. A fixed panel of 11 documented structural and energetic predictors was used to minimize data-adaptive feature selection within the validation framework. A calibrated ensemble combining Elastic-Net logistic regression, radial-basis-function support-vector machines, random forests, and XGBoost was evaluated using mutation-disjoint five-fold grouped out-of-fold prediction repeated ten times. Temporal validation used a later prime-editing resistance map, yielding 84 exact mutation–TKI matches across imatinib, nilotinib, bosutinib, and ponatinib; 61 had binary Sensitive/Resistant outcomes and 23 were retained as Intermediate. The 11-feature stack achieved grouped internal AUROC 0.645 (95% CI 0.429–0.830) and PR-AUC 0.230, with mean ± SD AUROC 0.583 ± 0.101 across repeated grouped splits. On the 61 binary later-study outcomes, AUROC was 0.605 (95% CI 0.431–0.874) and PR-AUC 0.835, modestly above the resistance-prevalence baseline of 0.770. External calibration was poor (Brier score 0.583; calibration slope 0.441). Elastic-Net showed somewhat higher temporal discrimination (AUROC 0.643; PR-AUC 0.877). These results indicate limited transportability across mutation identities and experimental platforms and support use of the framework for hypothesis-generating resistance screening rather than clinically calibrated treatment selection.
SN - 1932-6203
ER -