Skip to content
DraconiticResearch
Search Sources API
193,349 studies31 sourcesUpdated 42 min ago
Peer-reviewedCC BY-NCScience Advances

Intensification of East Asian summer extreme precipitation under a net-zero anthropogenic CO ₂ emission scenario

  • Seungmok Paik1
  • Daehyun Kim1
  • Soon-Il An2
  • So-Eun Park2
  • Andrew D. King3,4
  • Seung-Ki Min5
  • Chao Liu1
  • Jongsoo Shin6
6 affiliations
  1. 1School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
  2. 2Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea.
  3. 3School of Geography, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
  4. 4Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
  5. 5Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea.
  6. 6Physical Oceanography Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA.
Open at sourceDOICite

Abstract

Global warming has intensified extreme precipitation, a trend projected to continue as warming persists. However, how extreme precipitation characteristics respond to global warming mitigation strategies remains poorly understood. This study examines East Asian summer extreme precipitation responses under a net-zero anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission scenario. Despite substantial cooling over East Asia following atmospheric CO 2 concentration decline, the intensity of extreme precipitation events continues to increase for about 30 years and does not subsequently weaken. This counterintuitive result arises mainly from intensified upward motion during extreme precipitation events, driven by enhanced baroclinicity and strengthening of the upper-tropospheric jet, which together overcompensate the cooling effect. These are essentially due to the hysteresis in the Atlantic (i.e., Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown), Southern (i.e., sustained warming), and Pacific (i.e., El Niño–like warming) Oceans. Our findings highlight that achieving net-zero anthropogenic CO 2 emissions is insufficient to mitigate intensifying extreme rainfall events in the densely populated East Asian countries.

Related

  1. Evidence from 2024 Storm Boris indicates anthropogenic climate change amplifies floods more than extreme precipitation
    Peter Miersch, István Dunkl, Antonio Sánchez-Benítez +6
    Science AdvancesPeer-reviewedCC BYFull textClimate scienceSci. Adv.CrossrefEurope PMCPMC
  2. Intensification of irrigated agriculture and precipitation explain rising evapotranspiration in the Snake River Basin despite declining atmospheric demand
    Meetpal Singh Kukal, Dinesh Gulati, Meng Zhao +2
    Journal of Hydrology: Regional StudiesPeer-reviewedCC BYFull textClimate scienceDOAJ
  3. CMIP6‐Driven CaMa‐Flood Simulations Reveal Anthropogenic Control on Global Flood Extremes via Precipitation and Snowmelt Drivers
    Jing Liang, Enda Zhu, Yaqiang Wang
    Earth and Space SciencePeer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Full textClimate scienceCrossref
  4. Trade-offs between predictive accuracy and distributional fidelity in surrogate modeling of extreme precipitation
    Nabil El Moçayd, Abdelaziz Chaqdid
    EGUspherePreprintCC BY 4.0General earth scienceEGUsphere
  5. Polar front jet regulates tropical sea surface temperature impacts on South China extreme precipitation
    Xuefeng Liu, Zhiwei Zhu, Shaobo Qiao +1
    Communications Earth & EnvironmentPeer-reviewedCC BY 4.0General earth scienceNatureCrossref

Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{paik2026intensification,
  title = {{Intensification of East Asian summer extreme precipitation under a net-zero anthropogenic CO ₂ emission scenario}},
  author = {Seungmok Paik and Daehyun Kim and Soon-Il An and So-Eun Park and Andrew D. King and Seung-Ki Min and Chao Liu and Jongsoo Shin},
  journal = {Science Advances},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aec9366},
  url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aec9366},
  note = {CC BY-NC},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Intensification of East Asian summer extreme precipitation under a net-zero anthropogenic CO ₂ emission scenario
AU  - Seungmok Paik
AU  - Daehyun Kim
AU  - Soon-Il An
AU  - So-Eun Park
AU  - Andrew D. King
AU  - Seung-Ki Min
AU  - Chao Liu
AU  - Jongsoo Shin
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/09
JO  - Science Advances
DO  - 10.1126/sciadv.aec9366
UR  - https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aec9366
AB  - Global warming has intensified extreme precipitation, a trend projected to continue as warming persists. However, how extreme precipitation characteristics respond to global warming mitigation strategies remains poorly understood. This study examines East Asian summer extreme precipitation responses under a net-zero anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission scenario. Despite substantial cooling over East Asia following atmospheric CO 2 concentration decline, the intensity of extreme precipitation events continues to increase for about 30 years and does not subsequently weaken. This counterintuitive result arises mainly from intensified upward motion during extreme precipitation events, driven by enhanced baroclinicity and strengthening of the upper-tropospheric jet, which together overcompensate the cooling effect. These are essentially due to the hysteresis in the Atlantic (i.e., Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown), Southern (i.e., sustained warming), and Pacific (i.e., El Niño–like warming) Oceans. Our findings highlight that achieving net-zero anthropogenic CO 2 emissions is insufficient to mitigate intensifying extreme rainfall events in the densely populated East Asian countries.
SN  - 2375-2548
ER  -