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Peer-reviewedCC BYScience Advances

Evidence from 2024 Storm Boris indicates anthropogenic climate change amplifies floods more than extreme precipitation

  • Peter Miersch1,2
  • István Dunkl3
  • Antonio Sánchez-Benítez4
  • Marylou Athanase4
  • Oldrich Rakovec5
  • Daniel Klotz6,7
  • Sebastian Sippel3
  • Helge Goessling4
  • Jakob Zscheischler1,2
7 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Compound Environmental Risks, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany.
  2. 2Department of Hydro Sciences, TUD Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany.
  3. 3Leipzig Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany.
  4. 4Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany.
  5. 5Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czechia.
  6. 6Interdisciplinary Transformation University Austria, Linz, Austria.
  7. 7Google Research, Vienna, Austria.
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Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change intensifies extreme precipitation, but how it affects flood hazards remains uncertain. In September 2024, Storm Boris triggered catastrophic flooding across central Europe, underscoring the need to quantify the contribution of human-caused climate change to flood intensity for effective risk management. Using a storyline approach, we show that precipitation associated with Storm Boris would have been 6 to 9% lower in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, whereas flood peaks would, on average, have been reduced by 14 to 22%. Our estimates are based on nudged simulations from two climate models coupled with two hydrological models across hundreds of affected catchments. The results imply that anthropogenic forcing amplified flood peaks by a factor of 2.1 to 2.9 relative to the increase in event precipitation. Overall, we demonstrate that attributing precipitation alone would substantially underestimate flood hazard amplification from climate change-an effect that should inform future risk assessments and loss estimates.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{miersch2026evidence,
  title = {{Evidence from 2024 Storm Boris indicates anthropogenic climate change amplifies floods more than extreme precipitation}},
  author = {Peter Miersch and István Dunkl and Antonio Sánchez-Benítez and Marylou Athanase and Oldrich Rakovec and Daniel Klotz and Sebastian Sippel and Helge Goessling and Jakob Zscheischler},
  journal = {Science Advances},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aef7703},
  url = {https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/sciadv.aef7703},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Evidence from 2024 Storm Boris indicates anthropogenic climate change amplifies floods more than extreme precipitation
AU  - Peter Miersch
AU  - István Dunkl
AU  - Antonio Sánchez-Benítez
AU  - Marylou Athanase
AU  - Oldrich Rakovec
AU  - Daniel Klotz
AU  - Sebastian Sippel
AU  - Helge Goessling
AU  - Jakob Zscheischler
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/28
JO  - Science Advances
DO  - 10.1126/sciadv.aef7703
UR  - https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/sciadv.aef7703
AB  - Anthropogenic climate change intensifies extreme precipitation, but how it affects flood hazards remains uncertain. In September 2024, Storm Boris triggered catastrophic flooding across central Europe, underscoring the need to quantify the contribution of human-caused climate change to flood intensity for effective risk management. Using a storyline approach, we show that precipitation associated with Storm Boris would have been 6 to 9% lower in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, whereas flood peaks would, on average, have been reduced by 14 to 22%. Our estimates are based on nudged simulations from two climate models coupled with two hydrological models across hundreds of affected catchments. The results imply that anthropogenic forcing amplified flood peaks by a factor of 2.1 to 2.9 relative to the increase in event precipitation. Overall, we demonstrate that attributing precipitation alone would substantially underestimate flood hazard amplification from climate change-an effect that should inform future risk assessments and loss estimates.
SN  - 2375-2548
ER  -