Fifteen years of regional climate downscaling in CORDEX-Australasia
15 affiliations
- 1Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- 2CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia
- 3Physics Department, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma, Spain
- 4Département des sciences de la Terre et de l’atmosphère, Centre pour l’étude et la simulation du climat à l’échelle régionale (ESCER), Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Canada
- 5Queensland Future Climate Science Program, Queensland Government, Brisbane, Australia
- 6The University of Queensland, School of The Environment, Brisbane, Australia
- 7School of Environmental and Conservation Sciences and Centre for Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University, Murdoch, Western Australia, Australia
- 8Climate Research, Climate and Atmospheric Science Branch, NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- 9The University of Melbourne, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Melbourne, Australia
- 10Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
- 11Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), UBA-CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
- 12CNRS–IRD–CONICET–UBA, Institut Franco-Argentin d’Études sur le Climat et ses Impacts (IRL IFAECI), Buenos Aires, Argentina
- 13Earth Sciences New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand
- 14Department of Water and Environmental Regulation, Western Australian Government, Perth, Australia
- 15Earth Sciences New Zealand, Auckland, New Zealand
Abstract
Regional climate modelling plays a central role in understanding and projecting climate change across Australasia, a region characterised by complex topography, diverse climate regimes, and high exposure to climate extremes. Over the past fifteen years, CORDEX-Australasia has coordinated regional climate downscaling under an international framework while operating alongside complementary national and state-based initiatives. Here we synthesise the evolution, achievements, scientific advances, applications, and future priorities of regional climate modelling in the region. Successive CORDEX-CMIP5 and CORDEX-CMIP6 ensembles have produced the largest coordinated high-resolution projection datasets for Australasia. Regional climate models demonstrate clear added value over their driving global climate models, particularly in representing temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, coastal processes, and complex terrain. CMIP6-based projections show robust agreement on substantial 21st-century warming, with uncertainty dominated by emissions scenarios, while precipitation responses remain more regionally heterogeneous. Advances in convection-permitting modelling, benchmarking frameworks, and bias-correction methods have further improved process representation and evaluation. Regional projections now underpin applications in water resources, agriculture, disaster risk reduction, energy, health, and national climate services. Progress has been supported by shared infrastructure through the National Computational Infrastructure and strengthened coordination via the National Partnership for Climate Projections, highlighting strong synergies between State and Federal programs contributing to CORDEX. Key challenges remain including computational demands, persistent model biases, precipitation uncertainty, ensemble design, and translating complex multi-model information into decision-ready guidance. Strategic priorities include kilometre-scale (convection-permitting) modelling, enhanced Earth system coupling, coordinated super-ensembles, responsible integration of artificial intelligence approaches, strengthened observational constraints, and expanded support for vulnerable remote Australian islands and Pacific Island nations. Sustained investment, collaboration, and innovation will be essential to deliver robust, high-resolution climate information for adaptation and resilience across Australasia.
Related
- Spatio-temporal precipitation downscaling at hourly resolution based on km-scale regional simulations
- Downscaling with AI reveals the large role of internal variability in fine-scale projections of climate extremes
- Generative modelling for multivariate spatio-temporal downscaling of monthly climate fields
- Climate-driven water stress in the United States is seasonal, regional, and shaped by adaptation
- Regional climate risk assessment from climate models using probabilistic machine learning
BibTeX
@article{evans2026fifteen,
title = {{Fifteen years of regional climate downscaling in CORDEX-Australasia}},
author = {Jason P. Evans and Marcus Thatcher and Daniel Argüeso and Alejandro Di Luca and Ralph Trancoso and Julia Andrys and Sarah Chapman and Giovanni Di Virgilio and Andrew Dowdy and Lluís Fita and Peter B. Gibson and Michael Grose and Emma Howard and Fei Ji and Jatin Kala and Jack Katzfey and Leena Khadke and Omer Mughal and Benjamin Ng and Neelesh Rampal and Christian Stassen and Stephen J. Stuart and Chun Hsu Su and Jozef Syktus and Son C. H. Truong and Harvey Ye},
journal = {PLOS Climate},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pclm.0001066},
url = {https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0001066},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Fifteen years of regional climate downscaling in CORDEX-Australasia
AU - Jason P. Evans
AU - Marcus Thatcher
AU - Daniel Argüeso
AU - Alejandro Di Luca
AU - Ralph Trancoso
AU - Julia Andrys
AU - Sarah Chapman
AU - Giovanni Di Virgilio
AU - Andrew Dowdy
AU - Lluís Fita
AU - Peter B. Gibson
AU - Michael Grose
AU - Emma Howard
AU - Fei Ji
AU - Jatin Kala
AU - Jack Katzfey
AU - Leena Khadke
AU - Omer Mughal
AU - Benjamin Ng
AU - Neelesh Rampal
AU - Christian Stassen
AU - Stephen J. Stuart
AU - Chun Hsu Su
AU - Jozef Syktus
AU - Son C. H. Truong
AU - Harvey Ye
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/24
JO - PLOS Climate
DO - 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001066
UR - https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0001066
AB - Regional climate modelling plays a central role in understanding and projecting climate change across Australasia, a region characterised by complex topography, diverse climate regimes, and high exposure to climate extremes. Over the past fifteen years, CORDEX-Australasia has coordinated regional climate downscaling under an international framework while operating alongside complementary national and state-based initiatives. Here we synthesise the evolution, achievements, scientific advances, applications, and future priorities of regional climate modelling in the region. Successive CORDEX-CMIP5 and CORDEX-CMIP6 ensembles have produced the largest coordinated high-resolution projection datasets for Australasia. Regional climate models demonstrate clear added value over their driving global climate models, particularly in representing temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, coastal processes, and complex terrain. CMIP6-based projections show robust agreement on substantial 21st-century warming, with uncertainty dominated by emissions scenarios, while precipitation responses remain more regionally heterogeneous. Advances in convection-permitting modelling, benchmarking frameworks, and bias-correction methods have further improved process representation and evaluation. Regional projections now underpin applications in water resources, agriculture, disaster risk reduction, energy, health, and national climate services. Progress has been supported by shared infrastructure through the National Computational Infrastructure and strengthened coordination via the National Partnership for Climate Projections, highlighting strong synergies between State and Federal programs contributing to CORDEX. Key challenges remain including computational demands, persistent model biases, precipitation uncertainty, ensemble design, and translating complex multi-model information into decision-ready guidance. Strategic priorities include kilometre-scale (convection-permitting) modelling, enhanced Earth system coupling, coordinated super-ensembles, responsible integration of artificial intelligence approaches, strengthened observational constraints, and expanded support for vulnerable remote Australian islands and Pacific Island nations. Sustained investment, collaboration, and innovation will be essential to deliver robust, high-resolution climate information for adaptation and resilience across Australasia.
SN - 2767-3200
ER -