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PreprintCC BYmedRxiv

Compound climate extremes, socioeconomic conditions and human mobility influence dengue dynamics heterogeneously across Vietnam

  • C. Fletcher1
  • S. Belman
  • K. Q. Do
  • Q. D. Pham
  • T. T. T. Nguyen
  • R. Gibb
  • P. T. Lan
  • T. C. Tu
  • N. H. Tuan
  • D. Lührsen
  • G. Tsarouchi
  • Q. Harpham
3 more authors
  • F. J. Colon-Gonzalez
  • J. R. B. Palmer
  • R. Lowe
  1. 1Barcelona Supercomputing Center
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Abstract

Dengue presents a major public health challenge in Vietnam, driven by biological, behavioural, and environmental factors. Compound climate extremes, such as sequential hydrometeorological events, can influence dengue risk yet remain understudied. We evaluated the effects of compound climate extremes, socioeconomic conditions, and human mobility on dengue relative risk across 670 districts in Vietnam over 20 years, stratifying by eight subregions spanning emerging to endemic transmission. Dengue risk was greatest following dry-then-wet conditions in seven subregions. Higher temperatures increased risk across North and Central Vietnam, but had limited effect in the South. Mobility associations followed an urban-rural gradient, with increased risk in highly rural districts where residents travelled more frequently to fewer destinations, and in urban districts with more visitors and dispersed outgoing mobility. Stratifying climatic and socioeconomic effects by subregion improved predictive skill at lead times of 1 to 6 months over unstratified and baseline models, with substantial spatial variation. Accounting for compound extremes across distinct spatial contexts could strengthen disease early warning systems in Vietnam and beyond.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@misc{fletcher2026compound,
  title = {{Compound climate extremes, socioeconomic conditions and human mobility influence dengue dynamics heterogeneously across Vietnam}},
  author = {C. Fletcher and S. Belman and K. Q. Do and Q. D. Pham and T. T. T. Nguyen and R. Gibb and P. T. Lan and T. C. Tu and N. H. Tuan and D. Lührsen and G. Tsarouchi and Q. Harpham and F. J. Colon-Gonzalez and J. R. B. Palmer and R. Lowe},
  howpublished = {medRxiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.64898/2026.09.19.26363468},
  url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.19.26363468v1},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - UNPB
TI  - Compound climate extremes, socioeconomic conditions and human mobility influence dengue dynamics heterogeneously across Vietnam
AU  - C. Fletcher
AU  - S. Belman
AU  - K. Q. Do
AU  - Q. D. Pham
AU  - T. T. T. Nguyen
AU  - R. Gibb
AU  - P. T. Lan
AU  - T. C. Tu
AU  - N. H. Tuan
AU  - D. Lührsen
AU  - G. Tsarouchi
AU  - Q. Harpham
AU  - F. J. Colon-Gonzalez
AU  - J. R. B. Palmer
AU  - R. Lowe
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/19
PB  - medRxiv
DO  - 10.64898/2026.09.19.26363468
UR  - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.19.26363468v1
AB  - Dengue presents a major public health challenge in Vietnam, driven by biological, behavioural, and environmental factors. Compound climate extremes, such as sequential hydrometeorological events, can influence dengue risk yet remain understudied. We evaluated the effects of compound climate extremes, socioeconomic conditions, and human mobility on dengue relative risk across 670 districts in Vietnam over 20 years, stratifying by eight subregions spanning emerging to endemic transmission. Dengue risk was greatest following dry-then-wet conditions in seven subregions. Higher temperatures increased risk across North and Central Vietnam, but had limited effect in the South. Mobility associations followed an urban-rural gradient, with increased risk in highly rural districts where residents travelled more frequently to fewer destinations, and in urban districts with more visitors and dispersed outgoing mobility. Stratifying climatic and socioeconomic effects by subregion improved predictive skill at lead times of 1 to 6 months over unstratified and baseline models, with substantial spatial variation. Accounting for compound extremes across distinct spatial contexts could strengthen disease early warning systems in Vietnam and beyond.
ER  -